I'd like to hear people's thoughts on whether the wolves went for the master of ceremonies. I think this is the most likely case, and if it is, the master of ceremonies should reveal themselves since the wolves already know who they are. (But obviously they shouldn't come forward until we're positive the wolves went for them last night)
I think this would be a bad idea! I'm assuming the wolves don't know whether they guarded the master of ceremonies, or if their target was protected by the strongman, so if the master outs themselves the wolves will know who
not to waste their time targeting. I can't think of a way we could be sure the wolves went for the master of ceremonies, maybe I'm bein slow though!! Someone please correct me if I'm wrong. But as far as I can see, the best time for the master to out themselves is again probably if they're about to get lynched - only if they really have to.
Right, I've been over-analysing the current situation for the two hours, I'll cut this down as much as possible
Because we're still statistically unlikely to hit a wolf through random voting this early on, I tend to vote for someone whose death will give the most context to other people's behaviour whether they turn out to be a wolf or a villager. Kadi hasn't interacted much with anyone yet. All we really can read back on is that Kadi threw in a vote for Mia yesterday when the votes stood like this:
Claire: I
Mia: II
Rowan: I
Kiersten: I
(Someone please check this XD)
If Kadi turns out to be a wolf, there's a small chance she could've been protecting me, Rowan, or Kiersten, but I know it wasn't me, and it almost certainly isn't Rowan (as he initiated this bandwagon), so just from my point of view alone, her death would reveal to me that Kiersten might be a wolf, and that Rowan almost certainly isn't. However, there's a stronger statistical likelihood that Kadi's wolf buddy isn't even on the list above, and she wasn't trying to protect anyone (especially since Mia already had most votes by then and Kadi didn't even need to vote!), so it's still not solid evidence and I still wouldn't know who to vote for next.
Also, nobody has objected to the Kadi bandwagon yet, and that worries me a bit. It could mean she's a wolf and her wolf buddies have jumped on the end of the bandwagon since she's going to die now anyway, or it could mean she's innocent, but given we're still more likely to hit a villager I'm leaning towards believing she's innocent
I am thinking of voting for Annabelle. If she's a wolf, I would suspect Ruben (for throwing that vote on her when she was unlikely to die), and trust Rowan
and Samantha (for throwing the second and third votes on her). It's still not solid because Ruben may indeed have just been trying to avoid bandwagoning as he says, but it seems more likely to me than Kadi protecting Kiersten
My logic may be a bit wonky and I realise that I'm the only one who can trust it, so I'm not suggesting anyone should listen to me right now, but I wanted to voice what's going on in my mind in case I die and it helps later. If Kadi ends up being a wolf, I'm screwed either way now anyway since the last people to vote will be suspicious, and people who don't vote for her at all will be suspicious
so it really doesn't matter what I do
So for the reasons above I'm going to change my vote from Rowan to
Amy Jewel... despite the fact it's probably too late to make a difference
We'll see what happens
Sorry for being all mathematical about it
Okay so I haven't hit enter yet but I just saw Kadi's post. Definitely sticking with this now unless anyone counter-claims