Birthday Wereclown!

[Ainsley Lynch]

I like how you say you are suspicious of me for going in a random direction and then jump in my train and vote for Amy too It's just, last game there were a lot of people bandwagoning me included and people started suspecting me because of that so I thought that jumping on a new direction would save me from any accusations...clearly not the case

I mean, if you did turn out to be a wolf throwing a vote to another wolf for plausible deniability I'd be voting for a wolf too And even if not, Annabelle hadn't posted yet at the time, and early on I prefer to vote for people who aren't posting in the thread. (Speaking of which, I think Emzies is now the only person who hasn't posted yet today.)

As far as votes, I do definitely agree with Daph that we should avoid ties. It's a guaranteed team village death if we get a tie, so the only useful strategy is to make sure there's a clear leader of every vote, so we at least have a chance of hitting a wolf.

Current votes, unless I've missed something.

Ainsley Lynch - 1
Monty Pendleton - 1
Selene Le Fey - 4
Adorah Zumwalt - 1
Blair Silver - 1
Amy Jewel - 3

 

[Ainsley Lynch]

ACTUALLY @Professor Cyndi Kingsley @Professor Kalif Styx question

After the Sword Swallower is out of the game, what will happen with ties? Will they come down to a coin flip, or lead to nobody being ejected?

 

[Ruben Right]

No that's not it at all.

It means that anyone who tries to make a tie at the last moment might just want an extra villager death for free

OHHH nevermind sorry. I misread the info of the sword swallower, i thought that he would only go if the tie was between him and another person.

 

[Cyndi Kingsley]

What happens if there is a second tie?

After the Sword Swallower is out of the game, what will happen with ties? Will they come down to a coin flip, or lead to nobody being ejected?

RNG.

 

[Monty Pendleton]

OHHH nevermind sorry. I misread the info of the sword swallower, i thought that he would only go if the tie was between him and another person.

That's exactly how I read it at first too, heck. OK yes a tie would be fatal, we should avoid that at all costs

Ruben's vote for Annabelle at the time made it 3 : 2 (Mia : Annabelle), which I feel would be a super risky wolf move - maybe if Mia had had 5 votes already and he threw one in for Annabelle, I'd be more sus, but there was still a risk of us changing our mind and voting for Annabelle instead at that point

I might regret defending anybody this early on

Anyway, I'm going to vote for Selene Le Fey, just to make a tie less likely. Sorry Mia if you're innocent

 

[Ainsley Lynch]

Ruben's vote for Annabelle at the time made it 3 : 2 (Mia : Annabelle), which I feel would be a super risky wolf move - maybe if Mia had had 5 votes already and he threw one in for Annabelle, I'd be more sus, but there was still a risk of us changing our mind and voting for Annabelle instead at that point

Unless I've missed something, this isn't true. Ruben was the first person to vote for Annabelle. I was second, because I threw out the theory that since the vote seemed so clearly geared towards Mia it would be a smart move if Ruben was a wolf to vote for another wolf, to give him the potential for plausible deniability later on. Samantha was third, bringing it to a tie, her given reason being that Annabelle had been lurking without posting, and then Annabelle herself came in to break the tie by voting for Mia.

 

[Professor Adorah Zumwalt]

I feel like at this point, people are just voting with RNG mostly... but maybe I'm underestimating the wolves. I still don't quite understand all the gameplay strategies of this even though I've watched it played quite a few times. And almost messed up the game royally as a ghost

 

[Selene Le Fey]

RNG.

Thank you.

it looks like I am dead meat (or should i use a different phrase as we are not actually lynching people. Either way I will say I am innocent. As far as I know I am your standard carnival worker.
best of luck all.

 

[Cyndi Kingsley]

The conversation flowed freely, everyone determined to get to the bottom of this wereclown business as quickly as possible. Two names rose to the top, but in the end Selene Le Fey, a Carnival Worker, was banished from the carnival in spite of her denials that she had anything to do with the events of the previous night.

The carnival workers looked at each other, eyes narrowing in suspicion before they rushed to their homes and shut their doors as tightly as they could. It didn't stop the fog from rolling in, giving cover to the wereclowns for another evening of mayhem.

It is NIGHT.
Small reminder that players who are taken out by the wereclowns and/or village should not post in this thread or elsewhere about the game until it is over. Night roles: do your thing.

Other note is that my likes are purely to count votes. ​

 

[Professor Kalif Styx]

It was an uneasy night for the carnival employees. The shut doors appeared to have kept the wereclowns from another victim. The carnival workers emerged from their tents to discuss the events over the previous night, or rather, the lack thereof.

It is day.​

 

[Ainsley Lynch]

NICE NICE NICE NICE NICE NICE NICE

RIP Mia though I think it's worth looking at the voting patterns from yesterday, so I'm gonna do that and ramble horrendously for a bit.

The first vote for Mia was Daph, who claimed it was a random pick from those who hadn't posted yet. This could very easily be true, or it could be a wolf throwing out random names to lessen the chances of wolves getting voted for. I'm more inclined to think it's the former, since it would have been easy for a wolf to dogpile on to me, but can't be certain.

The second vote for Mia was Sophia, who claimed she also used a random number generator. That's certainly possible, though I find it a bit more suspicious. It only takes one person to start a dogpile, and it would be sensible for a wolf to jump in early on this one and build some momentum to take out a villager.

The third vote for Mia was Kadi, who gave no reason at all. @Poppy Perkins I'm curious as to why you chose to vote for Mia, was it random, were you following the crowd?

The fourth vote for Mia was Annabelle, who did it to take the tie off herself. I find this the least suspicious vote of all, since there was nothing else she could have done in the situation.

The fifth vote for Mia was Claire, who claimed she was doing it to avoid the possibility of a future tie, though she also included some incorrect analysis in her post. Whether this was just a genuine misreading of the thread or an attempt to mislead other players is hard to say, but I think it would be a bit of a sloppy move for a wolf.

Of course there's no guarantee any of these people are a wolf, but I'm the most suspicious of Sophia and Kadi's reasoning for their votes. I'll hold onto my vote for now, I haven't seen anything I can rely on just yet, but I'm leaning towards the two of them right now.

 

[Harper Alston]

Thanks for the breakdown, Rowan!

Do we know if the lack of a kill last night was because of the strongman or because of lack of activity from the wolves? Would the text tell us?

EDIT: It looks like everyone has logged in within the past 24 hours so I guess we can't figure out who the wolves are based on activity

 

[Poppy Perkins]

I chose to vote for Mia mostly on vibes since I didn’t think it was Claire or Rowan, who where the only ones with votes on them at the time and I wanted to avoid a tie. I also voted quickly cause I was busy and didn’t want to miss a vote.

 

[Professor Adorah Zumwalt]

Thanks for the breakdown, Rowan!

Do we know if the lack of a kill last night was because of the strongman or because of lack of activity from the wolves? Would the text tell us?

EDIT: It looks like everyone has logged in within the past 24 hours so I guess we can't figure out who the wolves are based on activity

I also have the same question. I'm not sure if there is a way to know if the information isn't given by Kaitlyn in the post so we could only make assumptions. If everyone has logged on, we could guess that it may have been because of the strongman, then?

 

[Monty Pendleton]

Ooooh interesting!! When I read Kaitlyn's post I assumed inactivity, but I'm curious now as well

I just had a thought about the strongman - if they protect a wolf, they die, right? So anyone the strongman has protected is a guaranteed innocent. In that case, in the unfortunate event that we were about to lynch off the strongman, it'd be super super helpful if they revealed themselves and announced who they'd protected. Unfortunately that'd basically guarantee their death the next night even if we changed our votes, but it would help us narrow down the suspects massively. It'd just be a huge shame if they died with that knowledge T-T

The strongman is even more useful than the seer in some ways, since the seer can't necessarily be sure they're seeing the right roles until those people die

Ah crap, but I just thought, revealing confirmed innocents too early on would just lead to the wolves targeting those people. So it wouldn't be that helpful until later in the game. Hmmmh that's tricky. I don't know, it's late and I'm rambling now

Unless I've missed something, this isn't true. Ruben was the first person to vote for Annabelle. I was second

My bad, yes for some reason my eye jumped straight to your tally and I missed that you'd voted for Annabelle too!

It is 2am so I'll post some more thoughts in the morniing

 

[Ainsley Lynch]

I think strongman is probably the safest assumption, I doubt neither wolf could make a pick in 24 hours. (In which case TY STRONGMAN WELL DONE )

Kadi's explanation does make sense to me, I did already know she was on holiday at the moment & figured that was likely the reason for the short post, but regardless given how the vote turned out it warranted further explanation. I'm not not suspicious, but I'm less suspicious at least.

Ah crap, but I just thought, revealing confirmed innocents too early on would just lead to the wolves targeting those people. So it wouldn't be that helpful until later in the game. Hmmmh that's tricky. I don't know, it's late and I'm rambling now

I also don't think this is true. If the strongman winds up in a lynching situation, all they could reveal is that the people they guarded are NOT wolves. That doesn't give the wolves any NEW information - they already know who the wolves are. If the strongman is likely to be lynched off, there's absolutely no downside to them revealing who they've guarded, though obviously they should keep their role secret and try to stay alive for as long as possible.

I'm a little frustrated that I haven't seen anything reliable enough to make an informed call on who to vote for, but hopefully things will become clearer as the game unfolds.

 

[Daisy Parker-Taylor]

Dang it my only theory was who wasn't active last night! I'm at work so can't read much of what everyone has said just that everyone logged on so grrrr

 

[Harper Alston]

I think Claire was pointing out that as soon as we have a list of confirmed innocents, the wolves will likely start using it as a kill list. The wolves wouldn't want to leave behind people who are known to be innocent since those people wouldn't be lynched. So it would be better if the strongman had a longer list when they reveal it

 

[Professor Adorah Zumwalt]

I'm not not suspicious, but I'm less suspicious at least.

I feel like this is the motto of the game

I think Claire was pointing out that as soon as we have a list of confirmed innocents, the wolves will likely start using it as a kill list. The wolves wouldn't want to leave behind people who are known to be innocent since those people wouldn't be lynched. So it would be better if the strongman had a longer list when they reveal it

But wouldn't it be better for the wolves to target people who aren't confirmed innocents? Because they might have special roles that could help us (unless of course the innocent the Strong Man saved also have a special role).

 

[Amy Jewel]

So it would be better if the strongman had a longer list when they reveal it

True, however the length of list is kind of dependent on them not getting lynched/killed early.

Adding onto this, if we have some confirmed innocents from the strongman, whoever is the potential Seer may be able to confirm who the Seer is (whether that be them or Lexi). I do think the strongman should wait for a long as possible before coming forward, but if we still have the Seer role too, then we might be able to find the wolves quicker.

 

[Ainsley Lynch]

Well yeah ideally the strongman wouldn't come forward until late in the game, but we can't choose when/if they'll get to a point of potentially being lynched. They could be killed by wolves at night, or by guarding a wolf themselves. And even if the wolves do wind up picking off people on the strongman's list, it still gives us more information to work with.

At any rate, this is all speculation, and hopefully we won't know who the strongman is for a long time. (It's also worth being cautious, as a wolf could easily claim strongman to get out of being lynched, given that they've both been able to see all of this strategising. It's unfortunately not information we can rely on easily, so we shouldn't put too much stock in it even if it does arise.

I may change my mind later on, but for now I'm going to vote for Monty Pendleton. I find it suspicious that Claire's claimed incorrect information so boldly twice now - though they could easily be legitimate blunders, it could also be an attempt to misdirect. She's also the one who brought up the strongman plan in the first place, and didn't point out the fact that wolves could use it to their advantage. If we're all convinced this plan is legitimately reliable it sets the wolves up well to use it against us. Again, could be a genuine oversight, but I'm a bit wary at this point.

 

[Harper Alston]

She's also the one who brought up the strongman plan in the first place, and didn't point out the fact that wolves could use it to their advantage

Except she did? That's what I was talking about in my most recent post.

Ah crap, but I just thought, revealing confirmed innocents too early on would just lead to the wolves targeting those people

I think Claire was pointing out that as soon as we have a list of confirmed innocents, the wolves will likely start using it as a kill list. The wolves wouldn't want to leave behind people who are known to be innocent since those people wouldn't be lynched

I don't want to defend Claire too hard because she could be a wolf, but she didn't claim incorrect info in this case? Unless I'm misreading your post, Rowan?

But wouldn't it be better for the wolves to target people who aren't confirmed innocents? Because they might have special roles that could help us (unless of course the innocent the Strong Man saved also have a special role)

The strong man doesn't know what the innocent people's roles are. It's to the wolves' advantage to get rid of people that the village/carnival workers know they can trust

EDIT: Ok, I think I get what Rowan was trying to say. But I don't think it's realistic for a wolf to claim the strong man. That would lead to the actual strong man revealing themself (of course, assuming they're active) and then we'd know that one of the two is a wolf. We'd also get a list of innocents at that point. There are only two wolves, so it would be a bad idea to sacrifice one. I also think it's kind of weird to try and bring up this as a possibility.

EDIT 2: Sorry for all the edits. I'm on my phone. Anyway, just wanted to say more explicitly that I'm now suspicious of Rowan for casting doubt on what a future strong man may say

 

[Ainsley Lynch]

We'd also get a list of innocents at that point. There are only two wolves, so it would be a bad idea to sacrifice one.

Since the stated plan was for the strongman to claim their role if they get to a point where they're about to be lynched to attempt to avoid the lynching, it would be easy for a wolf who's about to be lynched to claim strongman. If people changed their votes thinking it was the strongman, the wolf would survive the lynching, and could claim the other wolf is one of the confirmed innocent. Neither would be sacrificed, and we would go on assuming both wolves are innocent.

In that circumstance, if the true strongman did reveal their role they would likely be targeted by the wolves, which would give them a huge advantage, and even if we did wind up getting one wolf out of the whole situation, it would delay things by a day, and only give us the identity of a wolf we were going to lynch regardless. The other wolf could continue to claim innocence and try to fly under the radar, and the wolves would have the advantage of the village being down a strongman and having wasted an extra day on the whole situation.

This is why I bring it up. We've got few enough players that even a day's delay could be a huge problem, and would likely be a risk the wolves would be willing to take if one of their number was confirmed to be on the chopping block anyway. I hope that explanation makes sense & explains why I find this whole plan concerning and untrustworthy.

 

[Harper Alston]

Just going to preface this by saying I'm a terrible judge at trying to decide how much information to put out there because I don't want to help the wolves. But at the same time, I think it's better to just assume the wolves are playing strategically, and the only way to overcome that is if the village shares any information they think is helpful.

I really don't think we need to worry about a wolf claiming strongman. As soon as a wolf claims strongman, one of two things will happen: the real strongman comes forward or they stay silent. In the first scenario, we have two competing lists of innocents and a guaranteed wolf lynch within the next two rounds. Rowan, I understand the point you're trying to make about a day's delay, but I still think one wolf in two rounds is really good for the village and not a huge loss all things considered.

In the second scenario (wolf claims strongman, no one comes forward), we'll find out within the next round whether they were lying because the wolf/"strongman" would survive the night. The real strongman would have immediately been targeted by the wolves. I guess there is a scenario that the wolf claims they protected themselves that night (if that's even possible this game?), but that gives more time for the real strongman to come forward. And from what I've seen in past games, the strongman can't just continue protecting themselves for the rest of the game.

It would be more advantageous to the wolf to claim they are a daredevil (then they have a convenient explanation for why the seer/fool saw them as a wolf) or the master of ceremonies or really any special role they suspect is inactive. The strongman seems like the worst role to claim, honestly. (EDIT: Or they claim villager, of course, which is most plausible since there are multiple of that role)

EDIT 2: I hope it goes without saying that if we find a fake strongman, we'll know that we can't trust their list of innocents

EDIT 3 : I'm so sorry I just realized there's also a chance the wolves might have targeted the master of ceremonies this round, and that's why there was no kill! I'm leaning towards this being the actual reason since it kind of fits the text? (Shut doors = automatic guards the master of ceremonies has??)

@Professor Cyndi Kingsley @Professor Kalif Styx - Does the text reference why there was no kill or is it purposefully vague?

 

[Ainsley Lynch]

I heavily disagree with your take about the wolf claiming strongman. Especially in a game with relatively few players, time is everything for the wolves. If one of them is going to die anyway, buying the other wolf an extra day and a wasted lynch is the best they can do, especially if it could lead to the real strongman revealing their role. I don't think it's safe to just assume anyone claiming strongman is telling the truth, and I still think it's suspicious that Claire brought this plan up out of nowhere seemingly without considering how the wolves could use it to their advantage.

It would be more advantageous to the wolf to claim they are a daredevil (then they have a convenient explanation for why the seer/fool saw them as a wolf)

I don't see where the daredevil comes into this equation at all, unless the reason they were being lynched was someone actively claiming to be seer, another claim I don't think should be made public or trusted if it is. The remaining seer/fortune teller likely doesn't know their role right now, and claiming it publicly would only create an easy target for the wolves. Even if they have their suspicions, I feel like right now the best thing the seer/fortune teller can do is stay quiet, at most small hints. We can't be certain of anything this early in the game.