Birthday Wereclown!

[Ainsley Lynch]

Thank you!

So, no way to know whether we've lost the real Seer or not. Hopefully the remaining potential Seer will be able to pick up which role they have quickly!

Other than that, I don't really have much to say. As ever, there's not much to go on day one. The target chosen doesn't really give me any clues about who the wolves may be, as Lexi had never played before so I've got no idea what her play style would have been like. Feels like a fairly random choice, which is always the most difficult to parse.

 

[Harper Alston]

I kind of lean towards the thought that one of the wolves might be a new-ish player. I feel like a more experienced player would go for someone who they know is good at this game. Plus it seems kind of mean to go for the person who's never played before on the first night (especially when there's no ghost role)

 

[Ruben Right]

If ya'll allow me... TABLE TIMEEEE

Seer	Tiffaney Phoenix Blakely
Fortune Teller	Tiffaney Phoenix Blakely
Strongman	Amber Chou Wilson
Master of Ceremonies
Daredevil
Sword Swallower	Poppy Perkins
Knife Thrower
Fire Eater
Wereclown
Wereclown
Carnival Worker	Selene Le Fey
Carnival Worker	Amy Jewel
Carnival Worker
Carnival Worker

Maybe it got even more confusing... worst part is we have tons of special roles so the chances of one of the important people being eliminated are big.

 

[Ainsley Lynch]

I kind of lean towards the thought that one of the wolves might be a new-ish player. I feel like a more experienced player would go for someone who they know is good at this game. Plus it seems kind of mean to go for the person who's never played before on the first night (especially when there's no ghost role)

This makes a lot of sense, but it is worth bearing in mind that the last couple of games have created conversation about how unfair it can be that experienced players who are known to be enthusiastic tend to be targeted by the wolves early. It could be inexperienced wolves picking at random because they don't know who tends to contribute more to the games, or it could be experienced wolves trying to avoid the problems we've had in earlier games. (Though I do agree that targeting someone who's never played before is rough )

What I would expect from experienced wolves is EITHER targeting players who tend to be vocal in these games (cough like me cough) or focusing primarily from now on on people who aren't contributing as much to discussion, so the game can stay active, but as we had no way of knowing how Lexi would have played I don't think she can ever have been anything but a random pick. If the wolves are primarily inexperienced, I'd expect the picks to continue to be fairly random. (Unless experienced wolves read this and try to hide behind random picks ITS ALL BLUFFS AND DOUBLE BLUFFS ALL THE WAY DOWN)

 

[Monty Pendleton]

Nooo, poor Lexi, shortest first game ever

Yeah, the first day is always hard, there's nothing really to go on besides speculating who the wolves might have picked, and Lexi seems like such a random vote for anyone (though I agree it seems a bit mean, which does also make me think there's at least one inexperienced wolf who might not have realised it was Lexi's first game)

Buuut then it could also be completely random

Yaaas thank you Ruben for the table!!!

I'm mostly interested to see who joins in the discussions today. If we did lose the real seer, conversations and voting patterns will be all we have to go on, so the more people talk, the more we'll have to work with later! And I'll be watchin people who are lurking and not posting

 

[Harper Alston]

This makes a lot of sense, but it is worth bearing in mind that the last couple of games have created conversation about how unfair it can be that experienced players who are known to be enthusiastic tend to be targeted by the wolves early. It could be inexperienced wolves picking at random because they don't know who tends to contribute more to the games, or it could be experienced wolves trying to avoid the problems we've had in earlier games. (Though I do agree that targeting someone who's never played before is rough )

Ah, I didn't know there was also an issue with other experienced players being targeted. I've always interpreted the conversation/unspoke rule as being "don't go for Jesse round one" Then again, this is only my third game

Claire phrased it better than me, but I don't think anyone was intentionally being mean. I think a newer player might have chosen Lexi not realizing she's never played before. I tossed this theory out there because it's the only lead I can think of, but you're right, there's a good chance the kill was random :/

 

[Daisy Parker-Taylor]

So I'm very bad at this game (soz team), and I always hate the first day because no one is sure about anything or anyone and it's all very confusing.

Going with the well loved/well hated random name picker.
Number 1, sooo

I vote to lynch Ainsley Lynch

 

[Ainsley Lynch]

Going with the well loved/well hated random name picker.
Number 1, sooo

I vote to lynch Ainsley Lynch

Donna why you do me like this ;_;

In all seriousness, as much as I'd prefer it being directed at someone else, I do think it's valuable to get voting started. If nobody's voted out tonight it gives us no data for the future, and gives the wolves essentially a free pass. That said, I'm going to hold my own vote for the moment, see what other players have to say while I'm sleeping, and make a decision in the morning. I've got a few more thoughts, but I'll sit on them a bit longer.

 

[Professor Adorah Zumwalt]

Nooo, poor Lexi, shortest first game ever

I was also killed first last time on my first time playing the game. I feel bad for Lexi

I'm gonna vote for Monty Pendelton

 

[Monty Pendleton]

Claire phrased it better than me, but I don't think anyone was intentionally being mean

Oh yeah just to clarify, I don't think whoever killed Lexi was actually being mean!!

As little as I want to die either, I fully agree with Rowan, the only way to get anywhere (besides with the seer's help) is by analysing the votes and conversations later, so it's important that we throw some votes around to see how people respond

I am going to withhold for now as well, but I'll probably cast a vote randomly for one of the quieter players this time around, purely because anyone who's not contributing to the discussion now will give us nothing to go on later when it becomes really critical to hit a wolf

 

[Amber Chou Wilson]

OK I'M HERE

Dang it losing seer first day sucks. We can only hope its not the actual seer...

Back at awkward day one guessing. I've gone back and forth on my stance on RNG voting tbh but I'm leaning towards it for now. I feel like we have the experienced/inexperienced player debate every game and it never really turns into anything productive. I've gotten the feeling over the years that it is usually a good way for wolves to point in one direction or another early on. Especially as they read all our speculation and can't change their strategy accordingly.

I'm going to go the same route as Claire. I think choosing randomly has its merits in getting us started, but choosing from the quiet players is also fair. I know people are busy so I'm not saying being quiet is inherently very suspicious, but we have to start somewhere. I'm way busier than I used to be these days so I'll be less active than people are maybe used to from me. But I'll at least try to contribute to the discussion when I can.

I'm voting for Selene Le Fey, picking randomly from the people who haven't posted yet.

 

[Poppy Perkins]

Hi hello I am also here lol.

It's so hard to vote the first day but it looks like we have a vote for Claire, Mia, and Rowan so far. I might wait a bit before casting my vote to see if anyone else posts or has any good theories though.

 

[Blair Bianchi]

Shoooot, Lexi, that sucks! Hope you aren't feeling bad because of this

And I a finally here too (in fact, I am still on the break tho, but I had a some sort of prom today!)!!! The first day is literal mess, so I went with RNG, just hoping to see what happens. And Mia, I am sooo sorry!

I am voting for Selene Le Fey just because of the RNG

 

[Selene Le Fey]

I am too tired to think things through much. I have read through things a few times but no more to add to the discussion. We may have some very smart or lucky wolves clowns. What a shame. Your first game and a fun roll and dead before you get the chance to use it.
Im using a rng says that says five so sorry
I vote to lynch Adorah Zumwalt

Edit: just realised I have had two votes since I did read the thread. Oh well. Do I force a tie or not? I am going to say net because I feel bad for the sword swallower.
Am I right in hearing that if there is a tie the sword swallower is sent away. What happens if there is a second tie?

 

[Amber Chou Wilson]

I am too tired to think things through much. I have read through things a few times but no more to add to the discussion. We may have some very smart or lucky wolves clowns. What a shame. Your first game and a fun roll and dead before you get the chance to use it.
Im using a rng says that says five so sorry
I vote to lynch Adorah Zumwalt

Edit: just realised I have had two votes since I did read the thread. Oh well. Do I force a tie or not? I am going to say net because I feel bad for the sword swallower.
Am I right in hearing that if there is a tie the sword swallower is sent away. What happens if there is a second tie?

I imagine the sword swallower is only sent away at the first tie?

 

[Poppy Perkins]

I think I will cast my vote for Selene Le Fey as well.

 

[Harper Alston]

I'm not sure if I'll be back before the day phase ends, so I'm going to go ahead and test my theory by voting for Blair Silver.

 

[Ruben Right]

My vote will be for Amy Jewel. She has been lurking a lot and that's kinda sus

 

[Ainsley Lynch]

Okay I'm barely awake so here are some more slightly jumbled thoughts.

I'm a little suspicious of Ruben just jumping in to throw out a random vote when there are so many leaning in other directions. It could be a misdirect - if the wolves think the vote is definitively going one way, it wouldn't be a bad strategy to vote for one another so in future people look back and don't associate them as working together.

That said, I do personally prefer to vote for people who haven't been posting in the game, at least until we have leads. I haven't seen anything else that reliably makes me lean towards any other players right now, so I'll add a second vote for Amy Jewel.

Having a quick count, unless I've missed something the votes seem to currently stand at

Ainsley Lynch - 1
Monty Pendleton - 1
Selene Le Fey - 3
Adorah Zumwalt - 1
Blair Silver - 1
Amy Jewel - 2

 

[Skylar Anderson]

I only just woke up so sorry for the late post but I think I’ll vote Amy Jewel too because I remember when I briefly came on yesterday she was lurking and I remember from other games she did quite a bit too...? (Correct me if im wrong though l did just wake up after all ) and since the first day has made me more confused than ever I don’t want to vote for someone based on what strategy I think the wolves might have, since I feel like there’s too much speculation about it all.

 

[Amy Jewel]

Not to try and deflect and make me more sus, I was at work for all of yesterday, so didn't have much time to post. I'm going to vote for, Selene Le Fey, purely just to take the tie off me

 

[Amber Chou Wilson]

I feel like going for a tie with the sword swallower is a very bad idea and I also think it´s a bit suspicious to get it to a tie... so now I'm at Samantha a bit.

 

[Ruben Right]

Okay I'm barely awake so here are some more slightly jumbled thoughts.

I'm a little suspicious of Ruben just jumping in to throw out a random vote when there are so many leaning in other directions. It could be a misdirect - if the wolves think the vote is definitively going one way, it wouldn't be a bad strategy to vote for one another so in future people look back and don't associate them as working together.

That said, I do personally prefer to vote for people who haven't been posting in the game, at least until we have leads. I haven't seen anything else that reliably makes me lean towards any other players right now, so I'll add a second vote for Amy Jewel.

Having a quick count, unless I've missed something the votes seem to currently stand at

Ainsley Lynch - 1
Monty Pendleton - 1
Selene Le Fey - 3
Adorah Zumwalt - 1
Blair Silver - 1
Amy Jewel - 2

I like how you say you are suspicious of me for going in a random direction and then jump in my train and vote for Amy too It's just, last game there were a lot of people bandwagoning me included and people started suspecting me because of that so I thought that jumping on a new direction would save me from any accusations...clearly not the case

 

[Ruben Right]

I feel like going for a tie with the sword swallower is a very bad idea and I also think it´s a bit suspicious to get it to a tie... so now I'm at Samantha a bit.

Wait... that sentence kinda implies that you know who the sword swallower or was it just me that understood that?

 

[Amber Chou Wilson]

Wait... that sentence kinda implies that you know who the sword swallower or was it just me that understood that?

No that's not it at all.

It means that anyone who tries to make a tie at the last moment might just want an extra villager death for free