Birthday Werewolf

[Professor Adorah Zumwalt]

Okay, so... I've included the voting table below (if it's incorrect, please let me know). Kris could be the Seer OR the Fool, right? (I'm trying to make sure I'm understanding everything right.)

Spoiler: voting records

Players	Votes Day 1	Votes Day 2
Analei Louw (Donna)	Poppy Perkins (Kadi)
Amber Chou Wilson (Daphne)	Elliot Briar (Kris)
Aine Thompson (Camilla)	Elliot Briar (Kris)	x
Birdie Atwood (Tayla)	Did not vote
Poppy Perkins (Kadi)	Did not vote	x
Ainsley Lynch (Rowan)	Amber Chou Wilson (Daphne)
Adorah Zumwalt (Kiersten)	Did not vote
Elliot Briar (Kris)	Poppy Perkins (Kadi)	x
Stefan Archer (Emzies)	Analei Louw (Donna)
Professor Cyndi Kingsley (Cyndi)	Poppy Perkins (Kadi)
Harper Alston (Ana)	Elliot Briar (Kris)
Casper Beckett (Jess)	x	x
	Deaths Day 1	Deaths Day 2
Night	Casper Beckett (Jess)	Aine Thompson (Camilla), Poppy Perkins (Kadi)
Villagers Voting	Elliot Briar (Kris)

 

[Amber Chou Wilson]

Alright the end of the last day was pretty crap, I feel really horrible for being part of the reason we lost Kris. As much as it frustrated me how hard Rowan went for me, I also now trust him more.

And dang a lot happened tonight. I'm glad we lost at least a wolf. I'm updating the list:

Seer	Kris?
Fool (shows as seer on death)	Kris?
Mayor
Werewolf	Kadi
Werewolf
Direwolf
Lycanthrope (will show as villager on death)
Apprentice	Camilla
Stone-smith
Stone-smith
Villager	Jess
Villager

Going by the worst case scenario a bit, assuming Kris was the seer, which does seem likely with Kadi dying and what Cyndi pointed out.

 

[Harper Alston]

Ah sorry, Kris I'm glad someone else found Kadi suspicious and gave her the amulet. Based on the votes, Cyndi is a lot less suspicious to me. And maybe Donna as well.

I actually think there's a decent chance Kris didn't see Kadi the first night? They were very reluctant to vote for her, passing up two opportunities to do so and finally only doing it to save their own life. Maybe it's wishful thinking, but there's a chance we still have the actual seer.

I also find it a little odd that the wolves went for Camilla since she didn't seem like an obvious target.

I'd be interested to hear Rowan's thoughts once he logs on.

EDIT: Just adding some more thoughts based on the Camilla kill. There are three people who didn't vote last time, one of whom was Kadi (and she usually votes in these games from what I remember). There's a chance that part of the wolves' strategy was to not vote since voting usually helps the village in the long run. I know Tayla's new and said she didn't find anyone suspicious, but there's a chance that could be an excuse to not vote last round. That, combined with the Camilla kill (which just didn't strike me as very strategic), makes me a little suspicious of her? Then again, the last time I was suspicious, I was very wrong.

 

[Birdie Atwood]

The only reasoning I had for not voting was because I had no idea who to vote and thought that if I voted a random that would look more suspicious. I still do not know who is suspicious because I don’t know the way people play yet and I may not post for a while because i’ve got school to go to. Just in case anyone got suspicious of my inactivity. Also sorry for not a lot of input because I have no idea what to go off of.

 

[Ainsley Lynch]

Oh WOW eventful night, but it's told me enough that I don't see any point concealing my role anymore. (SHOCKED that I'm still alive...)

Anyway, I'm the seer. I saw Daph as a werewolf night 1 and Kadi night 2. I doubt I'll get that lucky again given there's only one wolf left to find, so I'd rather be open about the info I've got while I still can be.

I vote for Amber Chou Wilson

 

[Harper Alston]

I'll go ahead and vote for Amber Chou Wilson though I'm curious to hear what she'll say.

(Sorry, Rowan, my paranoid brain can't help but be a little weirded out by the fact that you decided to reveal yourself so early in the game, especially since no one's voted yet this round.)

EDIT: I take this back. I do think Rowan's telling the truth given we've confirmed Kris' role, and it'd be too risky to lie considering there's no one completely inactive.

 

[Ainsley Lynch]

I've always believed in playing Seer very actively - I've never seen the point in being passive and sneaky with the role. What use is a Seer who dies with all their information? As yesterday proved, even when I think I'm being dangerously obvious without outright stating my role, people tend to view a Seer being weirdly fixated on one target as suspicious, rather than picking up what's going on. It's early on in the game, yes, but two wolves out of the way so early on isn't bad at all, and I would much rather be upfront about my info than die useless.

 

[Harper Alston]

So I did pick up on your Seer claim, but the reason I didn't vote for Daphne was because she hadn't done anything suspicious and there were (and technically still are) several possible outcomes that end with her being innocent. In hindsight, that was obviously a bad idea. I guess my hope was that the wolves weren't paying close attention to the game? (I guess I'm still fixated on this Camilla kill and the fact that you're still alive)

Any thoughts as to who might be the third wolf?

 

[Ainsley Lynch]

I have to admit, I tried to bait the wolves into leaving me alive - me giving a bunch of ominous comments about ~listen to me once I'm gone~ gives incentive to leave me alive so nobody would go back and look at what I said yesterday too closely. I doubt they thought I'd give my role away so quickly, or have reason to be so certain I'm not the Fool.

As for the third wolf - when Daph was talking about voting for inactive players the only people who were posted were Camilla, Poppy, Kris, you, and Cyndi (unless I missed something) so I don't actually think there's much to go on there. (I was talking out my arse for like 99% of yesterday sorry) but the voting is a bit more interesting to me. Daph's voting yesterday was very weird to me, and it was one of the reasons I checked Kadi last night. At the time that she first voted, the votes were

Daph - 2
Kris - 1
Kadi - 1

She could have easily forced a tie, but instead voted for one of the less active players as she had said before, with a note that she'd change it later on. I was very suspicious that she was so hesitant to vote for Kris or Kadi (I was pretty confident they were both wolves until Kris's comment about us both knowing stuff after that night...) but looking at it again now, I'd actually like to look at who she did vote for.

Daph said she was gonna change her vote, but before she did she voted for Emzies. Why? My guess is, it may have been an attempt to absolve Emzies. At the point Daph made that vote she knew she had a pretty solid chance of going down, which meant we would be looking back at her voting record. Which gave a pretty good chance of us saying 'oh well a wolf voted for Emzies, so she's probably not a wolf...' The risk of Emzies actually being voted out was exceptionally low, and if we'd gone back and looked at Daph's voting record knowing only that she was a wolf, it may have given Emzies some safety.

Of course, I may be talking out of my arse here, but it's where my suspicions are lying right now. Unless things change throughout the day I'll be checking Emzies tonight if I survive long enough to tell yall about it.

 

[Harper Alston]

That voting analysis is helpful. Emzies hadn't even crossed my mind as a possible wolf. It's harder to glean information from people who don't post as much.

Fingers crossed Daphne is the wolf and you're still alive tomorrow.

 

[Cyndi Kingsley]

There is a chance you can be the fool though, right? I think even the fool occasionally sees roles correctly.

I'd definitely like to hear from others before I vote.

 

[Ainsley Lynch]

That's definitely true, but given how things shook out yesterday I think it's unlikely. A lot of coincidences would have to align for me to be the Fool at this point. Especially given that the other Seer/Fool is already gone I reckon going for Daph is the best chance at this point - if I'm right there's only one wolf left, and if I'm wrong we still gain plenty of information in the process. This early on in the game when there's so little to go off of, any information gained is a good thing in my book.

 

[Analei Westwick]

I have a bit of a busy day at work today so won’t be able to reply as much as I’d like. I actually gasped aloud when I saw Kris’ role dang flabbit! But hopefully you are the seer Rowan and Kris was the fool? I’m glad we at least got Kadi. Since Kadi was a wolf, I’m just going to hope that Rowan is seer and put my vote in for Amber Chou Wilson and will check back in later

 

[Professor Adorah Zumwalt]

I love actually getting to play this game this time around instead of dying the first night.

We'll be able to tell is Rowan is the fool/seer is enough people vote for Daph... but then also, it's likely Rowan will be dead in the morning. Or Daph could be the Lycanthrope, right? Because they'll show up to the Seer as a wolf?

That being said, I'm not suspicious of Emzies but am of Cyndi for being the third wolf. Donna also voted for Kadi so if we're going by some of Rowan's logic, Cyndi or Donna could also be the third wolf. But then again, Donna already voted for Daph (which could be a strategy), so I'm still more suspicious of Cyndi.

I'm going to go ahead and vote for now for Amber Chou Wilson.

 

[Ainsley Lynch]

Or Daph could be the Lycanthrope, right? Because they'll show up to the Seer as a wolf?

God damn it I forgot this role existed. This is very true & everyone should be reminded of it and take it into account considering everything I've said so far. I'm still suspicious of Daphne's behaviour & her reluctance to vote for Kadi, but this is definitely a factor to consider.

 

[Ainsley Lynch]

This is the sloppiest I've ever played Werewolf I think it really shows that I've got Stuff Going On IRL Right Now :V

 

[Harper Alston]

Daphne could definitely be the lycanthrope. I didn't want to spell it out since I didn't want to give her ideas when she defends herself, but well, it's out there...

I don't really think Cyndi is suspicious since the votes for Kadi and Kris were so close. Cyndi voting for Kadi actually put her in danger of being killed. At the time of the vote, I think Kris and Daphne were tied 2-2 and it would've made more sense to vote for Kris or another villager. If we're assuming the wolf voted for Kadi, then I think Donna is more suspicious than Cyndi since she voted so early in the game when Kadi wasn't in any real danger.

 

[Professor Adorah Zumwalt]

God damn it I forgot this role existed. This is very true & everyone should be reminded of it and take it into account considering everything I've said so far. I'm still suspicious of Daphne's behaviour & her reluctance to vote for Kadi, but this is definitely a factor to consider.

No no no it's okay! And Ana is right, maybe I shouldn't have even mentioned it.

I think I figured out who the mayor is but don't want to announce someone's role like that (not sure if it would necessarily get them killed as I figured Rowan is most likely dead tonight).

There is a chance you can be the fool though, right? I think even the fool occasionally sees roles correctly.

I'd definitely like to hear from others before I vote.

Why I'm more suspsicious of Cyndi after (most likely) figuring out the mayor role is that she's trying to suggest Rowan might be the fool... but what's the likelihood of the fool seeing two correct roles in a row? Probably very unlikely. And so she's coming to Daph's defense imo which makes me think that Daph and Cyndi are likely werewolves.... I may be playing this very out in the open, but that's just my two cents.

EDIT: I'm saying this information with the knowledge we can only kill one today... so maybe I should have saved it for tomorrow? Idk. I'm still learning how to play.

 

[Harper Alston]

It's so hard to know what is safe to reveal and what isn't and if you accidentally reveal too much, you're suspicious, but if you're too vague, you're also suspicious

That said, I want to hear from other people, but my general thought is that it's not a good idea to reveal who the Mayor is. And I think if Rowan has correctly identified two wolves (and he saw wolves and not a direwolf or a lycanthrope), then I think there's actually a chance he lives through the night (assuming he's not just playing us all and is a wolf himself)

 

[Ainsley Lynch]

(assuming he's not just playing us all and is a wolf himself)

this would be the most bananas wolf strategy of all time which thinking about it does mean it could potentially be an excellent wolf strategy

 

[Professor Adorah Zumwalt]

That said, I want to hear from other people, but my general thought is that it's not a good idea to reveal who the Mayor is. And I think if Rowan has correctly identified two wolves (and he saw wolves and not a direwolf or a lycanthrope), then I think there's actually a chance he lives through the night (assuming he's not just playing us all and is a wolf himself)

That would be a great con

 

[Cyndi Kingsley]

I don't know if Rowan is the fool or the Seer and definitely not trying to convince anyone in either direction but I do think we have to consider that there are three options here - Rowan being the Seer and Daphne being a wolf (best case scenario); Rowan being a Seer and Daphne being the lycanthrope or Rowan being the fool who happened to see Kadi right but saw Daphne wrong. In two of these instances, we lose someone on team village. We could be so focused on Daphne that two wolves continue roaming among us for another night.

I also think the Mayor should keep things hush hush.

 

[Professor Elvera Le Fey]

Votes counted up until now.

Daphne: 4 votes.

 

[Harper Alston]

I do think we have to consider that there are three options here - Rowan being the Seer and Daphne being a wolf (best case scenario); Rowan being a Seer and Daphne being the lycanthrope or Rowan being the fool who happened to see Kadi right but saw Daphne wrong. In two of these instances, we lose someone on team village. We could be so focused on Daphne that two wolves continue roaming among us for another night.

I just realized there's a fourth option and that is Rowan is the fool and he saw both Kadi and Daphne incorrectly. There is a chance Kadi was the direwolf since the direwolf shows up as a normal wolf upon death unless they died for the person they were bonded to.

I do think you're right that we could be too focused on Daphne, which is why I think we should be discussing other potential wolves in case Rowan is wrong and so that we don't waste this day phase. (I'm assuming most people will be voting for Daphne).

 

[Amber Chou Wilson]

The fool can see the right role too, Rowan could have seen Kadi correctly and me wrong (which is what happened)

I'm afraid Kris was the real seer, since I'm not a wolf. But we'll see that soon enough. I know it's a bit silly of me since I also voted for Kris yesterday but I'm voting for Harper Alston since Ana is the only person voting for Kris yesterday who isn't confirmed innocent (besides myself but I know I am a villager)