Wow okay I’ve caught up
RIP Poppy! I didn’t pick up at all to any seer hints but hopefully she was the fool.
So I've been thinking a tonne about what the strats of players have looked like, especially in relation to voting out Teig yesterday. Annd here's my theory:
We all mentioned yesterday how Teig couldn't be the Alpha because she'd not been online. Therefore we could agree it was less likely for her to be a wolf as she would have to be either the Additional Wolf or the Hypnotist. So why did Elvera, Poppy and Adorah continue to vote for her even though the maths was against it? If you're trying to pick out the villagers with very little other notion to go on except that you have to vote for someone.
Elvera: Mia wasn't online much yesterday, and while she was the first to vote too it meant that she didn't really get the chance to change her vote. Especially after I mentioned I could confirm Teig wasn't the Hypnotist, Mia hadn't even been online to read it.
Poppy: I think she voted for Teig not because she'd "seen" something, but because if she didn't she'd be more likely to get lynched herself. It's just a defensive reason not to change.
Adorah: Kiersten admitted to not having a reason to choose Kadi or Jamie over Teig, so why would you continue to vote for Teig if it was much more unlikely to be successful?
Regardless of whether or not you want to believe me about the Hypnotist, it is STILL more likely to be successful taking out someone that wasn't Teig. So then I'm thinking, why would Kiersten still want to vote for her? I know you mentioned hating confrontation, but is that reason enough to risk killing a teammate?
Now I'd already said that Teig isn't the Hypnotist. Which means if Kiersten IS a wolf and they don't know who their Hypnotist buddy is, it is a much safer bet to lynch someone who it probably isn't, as opposed to someone that it could be, let alone if one of the others being voted for was a wolf. So keep up a vote for Teig because it's a good bet she's innocent.
As we now know Poppy was innocent, however if Kiersten (if a wolf) didn't know who the Hypnotist is and doesn't want to risk it, then why else would they not balance out the vote if not to try and save Kadi?
I can't make it make sense in my head as to why Kiersten would purposely choose not to give the village a better advantage, and instead risk killing someone who was more likely a villager, unless it was to defend a friend/a potential friend. So my vote is for
Adorah Zumwalt.