🐺 Birthday Werewolf! 🐺

[Professor Adorah Zumwalt]

Dang. I mean, if you read Kadi's last few posts, you could kind of pick up that. I was worried this would happen. Although, Kadi could be the Fool and not the Seer.

 

[Elliot Briar]

Yeah crap, I'm going to hope that's the case, though I was worried this might happen with what Kadi was saying... Going to do a vote round up assuming Daph and her table don't beat me to it.

 

[Amber Chou Wilson]

NOOOOOOOOOOOO

I think we have maybe an hour and I am swamped at work. But just in case I get got in these final moments. I have said what I needed to say

seeing this I scrolled up to see how they guessed, and maybe this post tipped the wolves off? Though I completely missed the implications here

We should analyze what Kadi said since this post may imply she knew something, but I'm about to head to bed (stayed up to wait for werewolf ) so I can't do that until tomorrow. We also have to keep in mind Kadi may have been the fool, I feel like it was too early for even her to know one way or the other if she was the fool or the seer. So any conclusions we draw from what she said should be taken with a grain of salt.

 

[Amber Chou Wilson]

Yeah crap, I'm going to hope that's the case, though I was worried this might happen with what Kadi was saying... Going to do a vote round up assuming Daph and her table don't beat me to it.

no danger of that I'm

 

[Professor Adorah Zumwalt]

Glancing back through Kadi's posts, I don't feel like she put any clues in there (or if there were any, I didn't see anything). She voted for Mary Lou, which means to me that if she was in fact the Seer, she didn't see anything of note or wasn't willing to vote for someone specific yet.

I feel like the wolves were aware of Kadi's clues. Myself and Ana were, I think, the only ones to acknowledge that in the thread. And then Ana changed her vote from Kadi to Dan. Which if you were a wolf would be a great way to throw someone off your trail. I'm not saying anyone is a wolf though . Just processing my thoughts here.

 

[Elliot Briar]

PHEW okay that took a hot minute, I ended up summerizing the entire Day Cycle and voting below, let me know if I missed anything or misinterpreted something, I tried to keep it a summery of notable moments so we don't have to constantly backread...

Spoiler: Day One Summery

Elvera Le Fey (Mia) casts the first vote for Mary Lou Layton (Zazz), citing it’s a stab in the dark and her being inactive is enough to rule her out from being help or potentially a ploy to hide

June Davenport (Jamie) casts the first vote for Poppy Perkins (Kadi), citing her “gut” and perferring to pick someone active instead of using any RNG

Adorah Zumwalt (Kiersten) casts the second vote for Mary Lou Layton (Zazz), agreeing with Mia’s reasoning on lynching an unactive player.

Harper Alston (Ana) argues against voting for Zazz, pointing out the wolves are most likely active players.

Armortentia Layton-King (Pheeb) agrees with Ana and points out Zazz hasn’t been online.

Kiersten argues the danger of accidentally kiling an active villager instead of an inactive one.

Aine Thompson (Camilla) refuses to lock in a vote, citing “external logistics” (I think she means timezones/bedtime).

Ana points out Zazz could be a wolf, just not the active one.

Pheeb agrees with Ana and points out if Zazz is not a wolf she could still come online and help the village assuming she’s innocent

Amber Chou-Wilson (Daph) points out that Jamie’s reasoning for lynching Kadi seems strange.

Pheeb and Kadi both point out the dilemma of voting for inactive players vs active players

Claire clarifies the wolves do not both have to agree on a target and the Alpha Wolf is the one who attacks alone.

Killian Borisyuk (Kaitlyn) says everyone is suspicious and is having trouble picking someone

Camilla comes back saying she doesn’t want to abstain and is leaning towards Zazz

Jamie defends her picking on Kadi despite it being pointed out that one of her reasons (Kadi posting first) isn’t qute accurate as Elliot Briar (Kris) posted first. She once again sites her gut feeling for picking Kadi

Elliot Briar (Kris) casts the first vote for June Davenport (Jamie) after arguing against voting for Zazz based on activity but also doesn’t agree with Jamie’s reasoning for picking Kadi, siting her weak reasoning and refusal to go with RNG to pick the first lynch

Pheeb says she thinks Jamie is innocent, citing a werewolf wouldn’t make false accusations and draw attention. She also points out Kris not mentioning Daphne when mentioning players in favour of voting for quiet players.

Poppy Perkins (Kadi) casts the third vote for Mary Lou Layton (Zazz), citing that taking out an inactive player doesn’t cause much harm at this stage and not having much time left for her to vote.

Kris defends their argument against not voting an inactive player, citing the specific circumstance with Zazz being offline and mentions liking to force a tie on the first vote.

Pheeb reminds everyone about the doctor potentially saving someone tonight.

Ana finds Jamie’s focus on Kadi interesting despite any real evidence, however she states she doesn’t find Jamie calling attention to her inexperience overly suspicious. Ana mentions she finds Camilla the most suspicious for not voting.

Pheeb makes a list of players who haven’t posted more than two times, mentioning the second wolf could easily be trying to float under the radar by staying inactive.

Mia, Donna, Dan, and Zazz

Claire confirms the Hypnotist could block the Alpha Wolf and avoid a kill.

Kris agrees with Pheeb’s list of suspicious quiet people

Mia makes her final post for her night, agreeing with the arguments against Zazz that were made after her first vote. However she does not think there is enough to change her vote.

Jamie continues to cite a gut feeling for her reasoning for voting. She states she thinks people who follow along with others are more suspicious and then points out no one who argued for RNG before are arguing for it now. She agrees with not voting for Zazz. She questiions why Mia picked Zazz when there’s other less active players.

Harper Alston (Ana) casts the second vote for Poppy Perkins (Kadi) after agreeing a wolf could hide in the Zazz votes. Ana points out Zazz is the likely target due to not posting at all. She cites a close vote would be more useful to get info, though she mentions potentially changing her vote after more people have voted.

Dan abstains from voting, citing he’s been busy and doesn’t think there’s enough information to make a choice.

Pheeb mentions wanting to vote for Kadi to tie the vote but doesn’t think there’s enough info to do so. She understands Mia’s reasons for picking Zazz but also doesn’t agree that it’s a strong argument. Pheeb says she finds Mia the most suspicious due to clarification questions she’s asked in the rules.

Kadi says she doesn’t know how to defend herself without sound desperate or making herself a target. She asks not to be killed.

Amber Chou-Wilson (Daph) casts the first vote for James Cade (Dan) and mentions she’d usually pick someone randomly from the inactive players but points out that Zazz hasn’t even been online and we know the Alpha Wolf has. She cites Dan’s lack of activity and his refusal to vote due to the potential of wolves not wanting to leave a trail.

Kaitlyn mentions not wanting to vote for someone we know isn’t the Alpha wolf. After being advised a tie would result in a RNG death of the tied villagers, she mentions she doesn’t want a tie.

Daph advises Kaitlyn to vote with her gut.

Kadi points out even if Zazz isn’t the Alpha Wolf, if she’s a wolf it’s still one less wolf.

Daph points out the only thing we know for certain is Zazz is not the Alpha due to her inactivity.

Kaitlyn argues that we’d know for sure that Zazz wasn’t a wolf if we manage to vote out the Alpha and there’s no death the following night. She mentions focusing on lurkers if we want to pick inactive players.

Kiersten agrees but says there’s not enough info yet to decide if someone is suspicious.

Claire confirms both wolves and the hypnotist must be killed for the village to win.

Pheeb does some wolf math, stating it’s more likely they hit a wolf if they don’t vote for Zazz.

Kris mentions there’s been no sign of the spellcaster yet, mentioning they may have been hypnotized or that Zazz was the spellcaster. They have typo in their post and called the spellcaster the hypnotist at first.

Pheeb responds before Kris fixes the typo and says they were hypnotized last night, so it’s definitely not Zazz’s role. There is more wolf math to justify not voting for Zazz based on odds.

Kris points out despite how many people are pointing out good reasons not to vote for Zazz and then voting for her anyway or not voting at all.

Armortentia Layton-King (Pheeb) casts the first vote for Analei Westwick (Donna) after saying she doesn’t think it’s Zazz and isn’t suspicious of Kadi or Jamie. She cites Donna’s lack of activity being the most suspicious.

Kiersten mentions we could force a three-way tie and let RNG decide but we’re running out of time to vote.

Kadi begs again not to be killed.

Pheeb asks why Kiersten is still voting for Zazz despite her stated lack of belief or suspicions that it’s them. She pushes for a statistical vote (wolf maths)

Kiersten cites fear of confrontation.

Kadi makes a vague comment about saying everything she needed to today.

Both Pheeb and Jamie claim to be nervous about making themselves a target.

Harper Alston (Ana) changes her vote from Poppy Perkins (Kadi) to James Cade (Dan) at the very last minute, citing that this won’t change anything but she still thinks Dan is suspicous for lurking and not voting.

Daph gets in one last post before the day ends.

Mary Lou Layton is lynched and revealed to be a villager.

To steal Daph's table and summarize the votes:

Person	Vote day 1	Vote day 2	Vote day 3
Ainsley Lynch	/	/	/
Professor Killian Borisyuk	/
Amber Chou Wilson	James Cade (Dan)
Adorah Zumwalt	Mary-Lou Layton (Teigs)
Poppy Perkins	Mary-Lou Layton (Teigs)	/	/
Professor Elvera Le fey	Mary-Lou Layton (Teigs)
Amortentia Layton-King	Analei Westwick (Donna)
James Cade	/
Mary Lou Layton	/	/	/
Analei Louw	/
June Davenport	Poppy Perkins (Kadi)
Elliot Briar	June Davenport (Jamie)
Aine Thompson	/
Harper Alston	Poppy Perskins (Kadi) James Cade (Dan)

While I do think there was some very circular logic going on, I'm inclined to give a lot more grace on the first day since we were all taking shots in the dark more or less, so really I'd focus on the odd behavior more than actual votes.

Namely people repeatedly agreeing it doesn't make sense to vote for Mary Lou and then voting for her anyway (Mia, Kiersten)

Ana changing her vote at the very last second (could be a play like Kiersten pointed out, or could be her picking up on Kadi's clues)

And the most suspicious in my eyes, everyone who refused to vote (Dan, Donna, Camilla, and Kaitlyn).

 

[Aine Thompson]

The timezones are so bad for this for me because the main discussion happened when I was asleep. i should've put in my vote which I guess wouldn't have been bad losing an inactive player even as a likely villager (as they were) because down the line we'd have nothing to go off if they were around.

Every time I go "my trauma from forum mafia shouldn't still be there right" I sign up for this and go "oh wait, it is". I'll tell you about the 50 page writeups and group breakdowns sometime.

But yeah, hopefully discussion doesn't suddenly pick up at 12am because I'm an old lady. I'll have a think on it once I'm more awake I just wanted to excuse myself as an idiot in a bad timezone.

 

[Professor Adorah Zumwalt]

Kiersten cites fear of confrontation.

If only my therapist saw me make that realization.

Namely people repeatedly agreeing it doesn't make sense to vote for Mary Lou and then voting for her anyway (Mia, Kiersten)

The 2 above are linked (but I see how it suspicious that I didn't change my vote). Would it have been less suspicious to vote for someone else (at the time the options being Kadi and Dan, I believe)?

Mia, Donna, Dan, and Zazz

I like that there is just a line with these names

Pheeb asks why Kiersten is still voting for Zazz despite her stated lack of belief or suspicions that it’s them. She pushes for a statistical vote (wolf maths)

By wolf maths, do you mean this is a strategy wolves have used before?

Also, thank you Kris for putting that list and table together. Stellar work, and it's super helpful to look back on.

 

[Elliot Briar]

I like that there is just a line with these names

This was in reference to Pheebs list of inactive players I believe, weird spacing from my notepad

By wolf maths, do you mean this is a strategy wolves have used before?

This was mostly a joke about Pheeb's stats, sorry haha. I should keep these factual

 

[Harper Alston]

Yeah, I picked up on Kadi's clues late last round. I was a little alarmed by how blatant they were (and it seems like multiple people picked up on them), which is why I changed my vote. I didn't want to risk a tie (Kiersten had floated the possibility of forcing one) and was actually hoping some people might follow me in voting for Dan since there were a few undecideds who were reluctant to vote for Teigs or Kadi.

I'm hopeful that Kadi was the fool because going back through her posts, she was weirdly insistent on voting for Teigs even though it'd been established that this wasn't the strategic thing to do. It suggests Kadi saw Teigs as a wolf/hypnotist, but we now know Teigs is a villager.

Because of the Teigs vote, I'm kind of suspicious of Kiersten. They acknowledged that they weren't suspicious of Teigs but kept their vote for her. I also find it interesting that they mentioned possibly forcing a tie between Kadi, Teigs, and Jamie (the three players who I thought were the least suspicious/least likely to be threats last round) when there were also votes for Dan and Donna. As I mentioned last round, it'd be pretty easy for a wolf to hide in the Teigs votes because people were voting for her due to inactivity, not suspiciousness.

Also suspicious of Dan and Kaitlyn for explicitly choosing not to vote. A little less suspicious of Donna and Camilla because of time zones, but they could also be wolves trying to fly under the radar.

 

[Elliot Briar]

I'm hopeful that Kadi was the fool because going back through her posts, she was weirdly insistent on voting for Teigs even though it'd been established that this wasn't the strategic thing to do. It suggests Kadi saw Teigs as a wolf/hypnotist, but we now know Teigs is a villager.

While I'm hopeful this is the case and she happened to check Zazz, I suspect she was more likely voting to make sure she wasn't at risk of a tie and trying not to die. I did also pick up on the possibility that Kadi was hinting at a night role but I was holding my tongue to call less attention or the possibility that it was a last ditch wolf ploy.

I will say I am less suspicious of Jamie than I was previously despite her votes for Kadi. I agree people like Mia and Kiersten are more suspicious but my top contenders are everyone who didn't vote, particularly the ones who outright stated refusal to vote (Dan, Kaitlyn, and Camilla)

(Also apologies in advance Pheeb I think I typo'd your char name multiple times in that post before lol)

 

[Professor James Cade]

Hopefully, the fact that Kadi voted for Teigs does mean they are the fool rather than the genuine seer but I guess we just have to wait and see for that. I personally didn't vote because I had nothing to go on and I saw no merit in bandwagoning behind lynching someone (someone who turned out to be a villager) so if anything I feel vindicated in not voting.

I need to have a good read through the posts so far because I've missed some, but I'll be heading to bed now and will be at work all day, I will hopefully get to post tomorrow afternoon before the day phase ends, just in case anyone wants to make a case of me being suspicious because of inactivity.

 

[Professor Adorah Zumwalt]

Adding an updated table here of roles.

Player	Status	Role
Ainsley Lynch (Rowan)	Dead	Villager
Professor Killian Borisyuk (Kaitlyn)	Alive
Amber Chou Wilson (Daph)	Alive
Adorah Zumwalt (Kiersten)	Alive
Poppy Perkins (Kadi)	Dead	Seer?/Fool?
Professor Elvera Le fey (Mia)	Alive
Amortentia Layton-King (Pheeb)	Alive
James Cade (Dan)	Alive
Mary Lou Layton (Teigs/Zazz)	Dead	Villager
Analei Louw (Donna)	Alive
June Davenport (Jamie)	Alive
Elliot Briar (Kris)	Alive
Aine Thompson (Camilla)	Alive
Harper Alston (Ana)	Alive

 

[Elliot Briar]

I personally didn't vote because I had nothing to go on and I saw no merit in bandwagoning behind lynching someone (someone who turned out to be a villager) so if anything I feel vindicated in not voting.

I believe the common argument against this sort of strat is that not voting only helps the wolves as not lynching anyone means they can just pick us off and refusing to vote gives us less and less info to make choices to actually find the wolves.

 

[Harper Alston]

I personally didn't vote because I had nothing to go on and I saw no merit in bandwagoning behind lynching someone (someone who turned out to be a villager) so if anything I feel vindicated in not voting.

My philosophy towards these games is that it's always beneficial to vote. By doing so, you're giving the village more information to analyze and more things to react to. Yes, there's a good chance that you will accidentally lynch an innocent person sometime during the game by sheer virtue of how many innocents there are. But someone is going to get lynched every round no matter what, thanks to RNG. It's better to get information out there.

In my mind, the only reason you wouldn't want to vote is if you're a wolf who knows that your past votes will be analyzed. If you're a villager, your votes could make you suspicious, but hopefully it's all for the greater good of giving the village information needed to eventually win.

EDIT: Basically what Kris said lol

 

[Professor Elvera Le Fey]

good morning.
Oh no kadi. You will be missed.

I am just popping on to see if I am still alive (yes) and to say I won’t be on much at all today inhabe to drive to work (an hour and a half) work. Play basketball. Then we usually go out for dinner and then drive home. So i will pop in and actually read through when on lunch break. But if I am quiet today and don’t keep up sorry.

 

[Professor Killian Borisyuk]

I'm about to drive for 1.5 hours to my grandfather's but I'll address this when I can.

 

[Harper Alston]

While I do think all these less active people/people refusing to vote are suspicious, I don't think we can discount the possibility that at least one of the wolves is actively participating in the discussion. I'd really like to avoid another vote based purely off of inactivity and instead have one based more on suspiciousness, if that makes sense (although I know the two can be linked)

 

[Professor Adorah Zumwalt]

So, if we're talking who has stated their suspicions (tried to order them-ish based on what was said).

Ana is sus of me, Dan, and Katilyn. Less so Donna and Camilla.
Kris is sus of Dan, Kaitlyn, and Camilla, me, Mia, and less so Jamie.

So neither of you are suspicious of Daph, Pheeb, or each other (unless I missed it).

I've stated that Ana's vote change was suspicious. I have other suspicions, but I'm not at a point where I want to necessarily say them here as to give further fuel to the fire with people suspicious of me.

EDIT to add: Also, I suppose there is at least 3+ different voting "teams" happening here. There's Villagers vs. Wolves, Wolves. vs. Villagers (while also looking for the Hypnotist), and then Hypnotist vs. Villagers (while also looking for the Wolves).

 

[Harper Alston]

I'd say I'm also suspicious of Donna and Camilla, but less so than you, Dan, and Kaitlyn.

I find Kris kind of suspicious because of their vote for Jamie. Also find Pheeb's vote for Donna weird since she mentioned she was most suspicious of Mia. And Mia's insistence on sticking with Teigs is suspicious. I understand the desire to want to give active players a chance to play, but I think it's smarter to be strategic with votes.

That's not to say I'm not suspicious of the others since it's impossible to know for certain who is a wolf or who's not. But the above is what stood out to me. (Also it's hard because there are some people who haven't said anything really substantive, so there's less to analyze and be suspicous of)

I will say that if I was a wolf, it'd make more sense for me to stick with Kadi and hope that someone joins me since switching votes would only draw attention to myself.

 

[Elliot Briar]

So neither of you are suspicious of Daph, Pheeb, or each other (unless I missed it).

I've pointed out Ana's vote change right at the end there is potentially suspicious, but not nearly as much as I find the other's for the reasons stated. Is worth keeping in mind though..
(is the word suspicious starting to not seem like a real word anymore to anyone else?)

 

[Amortentia Layton-King]

Wow okay I’ve caught up RIP Poppy! I didn’t pick up at all to any seer hints but hopefully she was the fool.

So I've been thinking a tonne about what the strats of players have looked like, especially in relation to voting out Teig yesterday. Annd here's my theory:

We all mentioned yesterday how Teig couldn't be the Alpha because she'd not been online. Therefore we could agree it was less likely for her to be a wolf as she would have to be either the Additional Wolf or the Hypnotist. So why did Elvera, Poppy and Adorah continue to vote for her even though the maths was against it? If you're trying to pick out the villagers with very little other notion to go on except that you have to vote for someone.

Elvera: Mia wasn't online much yesterday, and while she was the first to vote too it meant that she didn't really get the chance to change her vote. Especially after I mentioned I could confirm Teig wasn't the Hypnotist, Mia hadn't even been online to read it.
Poppy: I think she voted for Teig not because she'd "seen" something, but because if she didn't she'd be more likely to get lynched herself. It's just a defensive reason not to change.
Adorah: Kiersten admitted to not having a reason to choose Kadi or Jamie over Teig, so why would you continue to vote for Teig if it was much more unlikely to be successful?

Regardless of whether or not you want to believe me about the Hypnotist, it is STILL more likely to be successful taking out someone that wasn't Teig. So then I'm thinking, why would Kiersten still want to vote for her? I know you mentioned hating confrontation, but is that reason enough to risk killing a teammate?

Now I'd already said that Teig isn't the Hypnotist. Which means if Kiersten IS a wolf and they don't know who their Hypnotist buddy is, it is a much safer bet to lynch someone who it probably isn't, as opposed to someone that it could be, let alone if one of the others being voted for was a wolf. So keep up a vote for Teig because it's a good bet she's innocent.
As we now know Poppy was innocent, however if Kiersten (if a wolf) didn't know who the Hypnotist is and doesn't want to risk it, then why else would they not balance out the vote if not to try and save Kadi?

I can't make it make sense in my head as to why Kiersten would purposely choose not to give the village a better advantage, and instead risk killing someone who was more likely a villager, unless it was to defend a friend/a potential friend. So my vote is for Adorah Zumwalt.

 

[Aine Thompson]

Honestly I was also leaning towards a vote for Kiersten mostly out of the potential double bluff of throwing suspicion on Ana for changing vote off Kadi at the last second to avoid wolf suspicions...but is bringing that up something a wolf would do???

I realize my own lack of voting before is a cause for suspicion (and that I was also leaning towards Zazz solely for activity) and all I can really say in my defense is "I may be stupid...". (I kind of barely even realized the game started when it did, oops). So with that being said, and so I don't forget to vote, I'll put in a vote for Adorah Zumwalt (Kiersten) now, though I am open to changing my vote in the next 12 hours or so before bed.

 

[Amortentia Layton-King]

I feel like the wolves were aware of Kadi's clues. Myself and Ana were, I think, the only ones to acknowledge that in the thread. And then Ana changed her vote from Kadi to Dan. Which if you were a wolf would be a great way to throw someone off your trail. I'm not saying anyone is a wolf though . Just processing my thoughts here.

This is also a massive tell tale to me - Kiersten admits that a) they were one of the only ones to acknowledge Kadi's clues and yet didn't switch vote b) if you were a wolf it would be a good way to throw someone off the trail by voting differently, so Kiersten has already thought about the implications of suspicion and how to defend against it

Donna was one of the wolves last game, and I don't recall them being super active then either, but then again, life happens.

At this point, we could just force a 3 way tie and left the RNG choose for us unless somebody else ends up voting. Just a thought, but we don't have too much time since 24 hours from day starting would leave us with 25 minutes.

Also if you read this bit again from yesterday. I had just voted for Donna and this was Kiersten's response. I know someone's already pointed it out, but Kiersten calling for a three way tie between Teig Kadi and Jamie is weird considering there were also votes for Donna and Dan. ALSO if it turns out Kiersten is a wolf, there have been multiple defense's as to why it probably isn't Donna, again strange since the only reason I voted for Donna in the first place was she was on my list of "least active but a little active people" and I even said I didn't necessarily think it was Donna. Just something to bear in mind..

 

[Professor Killian Borisyuk]

As of right now, I'm not sure who it could be, but I am least suspicious of Camilla and Daphne.
I am leaning more toward the people that voted for Teigs because we ruled out that she wasn't the alpha wolf. But still got rid of her.
Fingers crossed that Poppy was the fool and not the actual seer though - and I did not pick up any vibes from that.

Pheeb brings up a good point about Kierstan, so for now, I will vote Adorah Zumwalt.