🐺 Birthday Werewolf! 🐺

[Harper Alston]

My question is, does the village need to take out the 2 wolves and hypnotist to win, or presumably just the two wolves because the hypnotist isn't actually a wolf, just aligned with them, and therefore unable to enact kills? If the alpha wolf goes the title passes to the other wolf but can't go to the hypnotist, right?

The rules say if the alpha dies, another wolf will take their place. So no, it can't go to the hypnotist. And based on previous games, I think that if we kill both wolves, then we're going to just have rounds where we lynch people off until the hypnotist dies (or is the last one standing).

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I'm also going to vote for Elliot Briar.

The more I think about it, the more I think Kadi was the fool and Pheeb is a villager, and therefore Camilla is the seer and Kris is a wolf.

I said very early on that it struck me odd how insistent Kadi was on voting for Teigs. I know a couple people (interestingly, I think one of them was Kris) mentioned that she could just be trying to save herself from death, but she posted this right before the round ended.

But just in case I get got in these final moments. I have said what I needed to say

That suggests she knew she was going to die and wanted people to look back at her old posts. If you look back, the only person she mentions in the context of suspicious/not suspicious is Teigs. I feel like if she saw an innocent role, she would have tried to really subtly hint at who she thought was innocent. (At least that's how I've played seer before). Basically, why draw attention to your past posts if you didn't hide any clues in there? And the one clue she did hide was wrong.

As for Pheeb, she's done some minorly suspicious things but overall I've agreed with her logic throughout the game and think she's been helpful to the village. I think the thing that convinces me most that she's a villager is that she knows what's in the villager PM. Even my conspiracy-addled brain (she was a hypnotized wolf! or a hypnotist who hypnotized herself!) can't find another possible explanation for that.

All of that suggests Camilla is the seer. Again, my paranoid brain is a little worried that Kris might be a villager because they've never struck me as especially suspicious (aside from the Jamie vote day one and just being an unconfirmed villager in general), and if they turn out to be a villager, we're going to be in massive trouble. But the odds that Kris is not a wolf are much lower than the odds that Camilla is the fool. Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but the fool doesn't have a 50-50 chance of getting a correct role. Rather, they're given a separate list of randomized roles, which would mean that the chances of accidentally seeing Kiersten correctly is 7.14% (and accidentally seeing Kiersten and Pheeb correctly is 4.08%). I'd say the odds Kris is a wolf are a lot higher than that.

(Made some edits for grammar/clarity)

 

[June Davenport]

I kind of want to believe Camillia is what she says she is. So am willing to believe that, and not doubt it too much. Camilla is at least confirmed as non wolf so I’m happy to root for the non-wolf team for sure. Now I know Kaitlyn told the truth. Since I’ve learned that it’s a big risk to claim a role like that if you are not. But there is a chance Kris is not a wolf too ofcourse. But if this theory we are laying down is true that sounds like an very good lead to follow. Do we have something else which is a better choice? I don’t really know, so this is the biggest chance we have now.

So three people claiming to be villagers is too much. But if Kris is the wolf we have another one left. I’m asking myself what would this person do? Vote directly with the rest and safe themselve or wait and see if someone elses name comes up… I kind of have an feeling now I’m writing of Donna, who could be. But not sure.

My vote is gonna go for Elliot Briar. I really hope this is the right choice. But for me it feels like the best, so I’m certain of my own choice.

 

[Amortentia Layton-King]

Do we have something else which is a better choice? I don’t really know, so this is the biggest chance we have now.

Ngl, Jamie asking if there’s a better lead to follow than the seer looking at a wolf makes me very uneasy..
Of course if Kris is a wolf then they will have a least one friend, so I doubt they’ll both just jump on the bandwagon without trying to reflect just a little bit.

 

[Amber Chou Wilson]

Ok I was unexpectedly a bit busy today but here's my vote for Kris. It feels silly not to right now, even if Camilla turns out to be the fool.

I do have some thoughts about the hypnotist, though. I know it's probably a bit of a conspiracy but hear me out.

Even my conspiracy-addled brain (she was a hypnotized wolf! or a hypnotist who hypnotized herself!) can't find another possible explanation for that.

OK but I've also been thinking a lot about this, and the more I think about it the more I find the whole PM thing suspicious. You made me think of the possibility of Pheeb hypnotizing herself just to get that PM so she could share it and look innocent. If that is what happened, it would be an absolutely brilliant strategy by the hypnotist. I feel like Pheeb was oddly insistent on showing the PM when I personally felt like it was pretty obviously against the rules/spirit of the game (I actually wish we could just ignore it and move on with the game without it, but the knowledge is in all our brains now unfortunately)

So I've been thinking, what if that was the whole point? Pheeb hypnotized herself just to get that PM so she could show it off in here. It would be a bit of a far-fetched plan, but it would definitely make us not suspicious of her. I don't think this is a possibility we can just dismiss.

Besides that, I continue to be suspicious of Jamie as well. Her still questioning the roles that haven't been counter-claimed after it was explained already is sus to me.

But for now, I also vote for Elliot Briar

 

[June Davenport]

Ngl, Jamie asking if there’s a better lead to follow than the seer looking at a wolf makes me very uneasy..
Of course if Kris is a wolf then they will have a least one friend, so I doubt they’ll both just jump on the bandwagon without trying to reflect just a little bit.

Why? It’s not like we know for 100% sure that Camilla is the seer. So we don’t need to stare blindly on something. I believe she can be and hope she is so that Kris is the wolf and we finally get one. But just naming that there is a small chance it is not. Why is that strange? You are quickly defensive about that why?

I always look at things with more perspectives. And agree with Daph that is not smart to let this go. Curious who Kris is voting too.

 

[Amber Chou Wilson]

Why? It’s not like we know for 100% sure that Camilla is the seer. So we don’t need to stare blindly on something. I believe she can be and hope she is so that Kris is the wolf and we finally get one. But just naming that there is a small chance it is not. Why is that strange? You are quickly defensive about that why?

It's strange because you keep doing it, every time there is a bit of solid evidence we can use you try to muddle the waters and cast doubt on it. Obviously, we don't know if Camilla is the seer, but with all the evidence and no one else speaking up to claim the role, it's obvious to me we should assume for now that she is, so we at least have something to go on.

 

[Amortentia Layton-King]

I feel like not only is me being a hypnotist kind of far fetched, but it also overlooks every other villagey thing i’ve done throughout the game yeah I should have waited to write out the PM but i’m naturally impatient and I didn’t think it would be breaking the rules as technically it’s just something i’ve written as opposed to proof.

Why? It’s not like we know for 100% sure that Camilla is the seer. So we don’t need to stare blindly on something. I believe she can be and hope she is so that Kris is the wolf and we finally get one. But just naming that there is a small chance it is not. Why is that strange? You are quickly defensive about that why?

I always look at things with more perspectives.

Because once again looking at the maths behind if camilla was a fool there is a 4% chance she just happened to see the right roles is a pretty promising lead / confirmation she’s the seer. I would say 96% accuracy is quite a lot to then read as “well maybe there’s something stronger”

 

[June Davenport]

It's strange because you keep doing it, every time there is a bit of solid evidence we can use you try to muddle the waters and cast doubt on it. Obviously, we don't know if Camilla is the seer, but with all the evidence and no one else speaking up to claim the role, it's obvious to me we should assume for now that she is, so we at least have something to go on.

Yeah but that is why I am voting for Kris right?! But why is it strange to name that she could be the fool still? It is a fact.

 

[Amber Chou Wilson]

I feel like not only is me being a hypnotist kind of far fetched, but it also overlooks every other villagey thing i’ve done throughout the game yeah I should have waited to write out the PM but i’m naturally impatient and I didn’t think it would be breaking the rules as technically it’s just something i’ve written as opposed to proof.

I know it's a bit far-fetched but I also think it would be a good strategy to make sure the hypnotist is in the game until the end, even if there's also anti-wolf things you've done. IDK my brain thought of it and I can't entirely let it go so I had to at least share it y'know

 

[June Davenport]

I feel like not only is me being a hypnotist kind of far fetched, but it also overlooks every other villagey thing i’ve done throughout the game yeah I should have waited to write out the PM but i’m naturally impatient and I didn’t think it would be breaking the rules as technically it’s just something i’ve written as opposed to proof.



Because once again looking at the maths behind if camilla was a fool there is a 4% chance she just happened to see the right roles is a pretty promising lead / confirmation she’s the seer. I would say 96% accuracy is quite a lot to then read as “well maybe there’s something stronger”

Oooooooooooh now it makes sense. I didn’t know that. I thought it was as fool always wrong.

 

[Amortentia Layton-King]

Yeah but that is why I am voting for Kris right?! But why is it strange to name that she could be the fool still? It is a fact.

It’s more because you seem unconvinced despite voting Kris

 

[Amortentia Layton-King]

Oooooooooooh now it makes sense. I didn’t know that. I thought it was as fool always wrong.

Fool would see a randomised set of roles instead of the real ones, so yeah some may be seen correctly, but it’s just random. The more the fool / seer can view the more chance they have of confirming

 

[June Davenport]

It’s more because you seem unconvinced despite voting Kris

I’m not. That is what you make of it. But if we all knew for 100% sure this game was ending already. I have no clue who could be another wolf. So nothing is making me doubt this.

 

[Amortentia Layton-King]

I know it's a bit far-fetched but I also think it would be a good strategy to make sure the hypnotist is in the game until the end, even if there's also anti-wolf things you've done. IDK my brain thought of it and I can't entirely let it go so I had to at least share it y'know

It would be a good plan, but then I also wouldn’t have known about the villager PM. I also only brought it up that i was hypnotised when people wanted to vote Teig out so i wanted to demonstrate the maths were actually even more towards her being innocent Which would have been pointless if i wanted her to just get lynched as an innocent

 

[Harper Alston]

Oooooooooooh now it makes sense. I didn’t know that. I thought it was as fool always wrong.

Wait, this doesn't make sense to me. If you thought the fool was always wrong, then you would have known that Camilla is the seer because she saw Kiersten's role correctly. So why are you still casting doubt on her?

I'm now extremely suspicious of Jamie.

 

[Amortentia Layton-King]

Wait, this doesn't make sense to me. If you thought the fool was always wrong, then you would have known that Camilla is the seer because she saw Kiersten's role correctly. So why are you still casting doubt on her?

I'm now extremely suspicious of Jamie.

oh my that is a good spot

 

[June Davenport]

Wait, this doesn't make sense to me. If you thought the fool was always wrong, then you would have known that Camilla is the seer because she saw Kiersten's role correctly. So why are you still casting doubt on her?

I'm now extremely suspicious of Jamie.

I actually didn’t read the roles so well. Only my own to be honest which was not so complicated. And I’m kind of new to this. But go ahead vote for me if that is suspicious. Than there will be 2 villiagers left, not 3.

But I’m kind of sus now of Ana for trying to put the spotlight on me.

 

[Amortentia Layton-King]

Why would we vote for you over an almost guaranteed wolf, unless it’s a last bid attempt to save a friend I’m not sure Jamie is a wolf but I could see her being the Hypnotist.

Edit

But I’m kind of sus now of Ana for trying to put the spotlight on me.

But Ana has a valid point? And are you only sus of Ana?

 

[Harper Alston]

Why would we vote for you over an almost guaranteed wolf, unless it’s a last bid attempt to save a friend I’m not sure Jamie is a wolf but I could see her being the Hypnotist.

Is the implication that she's the hypnotist trying to save a wolf?

 

[June Davenport]

Why would we vote for you over an almost guaranteed wolf, unless it’s a last bid attempt to save a friend I’m not sure Jamie is a wolf but I could see her being the Hypnotist.

Edit


But Ana has a valid point? And are you only sus of Ana?

No everyone hahah this game is insane. What about you? Next to Kris?


Sorry I’m on my phone, but quoting my own post:
I’m asking myself what would this person do? Vote directly with the rest and safe themselve or wait and see if someone elses name comes up… I kind of have an feeling now I’m writing of Donna, who could be. But not sure.

Why would I publicly try to safe Kris if I knew being a wolf. That is a big risk and put myself on the chopping block. I’m not that smart in this game I already knew, but this again really proved my own thoughts. That’s why I only wanted to join if I was no wolf. But Claire can’t help me out with backing me up in that obviously.

 

[Amber Chou Wilson]

Is the implication that she's the hypnotist trying to save a wolf?

I could still see it going both ways tbh, I've been suspicious of Jamie for a while.

But I guess we can't really do anything about it until the next day, if we still feel like that tomorrow.

 

[Amortentia Layton-King]

Is the implication that she's the hypnotist trying to save a wolf?

It is to me, since Jamie is raising a few sus things but not specific enough to identify wolves.

No everyone hahah this game is insane. What about you? Next to Kris?

What about me?

 

[Harper Alston]

Oh, probably should have clarified. I meant, "Is the implication that she's a hypnotist trying to save a wolf by sacrificing herself?" Just based off her "go ahead and vote for me" comment.

I still can't get a good read on Jamie as a hypnotist vs wolf, but I agree with Daphne that it's really weird she keeps on muddying the waters anytime we have a good lead. (Also that inconsistency about her understanding of the seer/fool role is a massive red flag)

Edit: clarified something

 

[Amortentia Layton-King]

Aah yes, because if Jamie is the hypnotist and we’re sus of her, at least she could try a save a wolf in the process.

 

[Amber Chou Wilson]

I'm not sure because I don't think she was actually thinking we would vote for her instead...