Werewolf: HNZ Birthday edition 🐺

[Amber Chou Wilson]

First I am most suspicious of Jace Blade/Zach so much so that I will make him my vote now Jace Blade reasons: Twice he has suggested RNG when it benefited the wolves more than the village. He has experience as stated by himself from playing mafia games on other sites, lurks but does not actively say anything and finally jumped on the bandwagon on the first day to lynch Zennon but on the second day didn't vote at all or even list a suspect despite again lurking for a good amount of time. To me he is extremely likely to be a wolf based off these things and even though I tried to see if he would post several times with some of my comments he remained silently watching and that's why I am even willing to bet my life that he's a wolf. (If I'm wrong feel free to lynch me tomorrow, if I'm right but get lynched today than I highly advise you look at him next)

My second suspect was Daphne, I was sure the wolves would pick off another person that was beneficial in logic and reasoning, unfortunately for me Daphne didn't post enough on the second day for me to see if she would be chosen as the wolves' next target (my literal thought was if she was killed she was innocent and if she wasn't than she was likely a wolf playing the same tactic Jesse did as a wolf (helping by misleading the village to remain hidden)) I definitely tried to get her to post yesterday to see if I could gauge her better but that didn't work out.

I am surprised Mia or myself wasn't targeted but I also think the wolves might be counting on Mia and Daphne not being as around as much and that I would be Lynched today.

You posted right as I did and I want to react to this part. The bit about the RNG makes a lot of sense and I want to go back now and see who advocated for RNG lynching yesterday, I don't think it was just Zach. But that's a good point.

But the tactic you describe as misleading the village to remain hidden is a bit at odds with me not posting, or was that the suspicion you had of me before the second day? It's a bit what I'm suspecting you of now, so that's kind of funny.

I'm not surprised the wolves targeted someone different than the pattern of an experienced player with a lot to bring to the discussion. I'm leaning to think it's random.

I vote to lynch Kard Thomas

OKAI HEAR ME OUT

Firstly sorry for dropping off the face of the earth yesterday, I only have a small window where I can post each day because of work T_T

I agree with a lot of things Brian has said. I'm not gonna say I trust certain people more than others cus I'm usually wrong, but he is absolutely correct that we need to be accusing people (different people, multiple people, people who've been slipping under the radar) if we want to get anywhere.

I think we're going about this wrong trying to analyse why the wolves might have killed a certain person. We'll never really know what made them choose, it might be a double bluff, it might not be - we'll go around in circles forever.

The only way we're gonna narrow it down is by looking back on people's behaviour during the day - and this will be especially relevant once one of the wolves has been found as we'll have more to go on. I'd outline the exact ways we could spot the wolves but I don't want to make it easy for them to avoid doing it so maybe later

For the time being I'm going to just start playing more like Brian. It's pretty likely I'm gonna die at some point so I might as well stir things up a bit and hope that my death sheds some light on the remaining players somehow.

Rest in pieces, Cyndi and Samantha T-T <3

---

HECK Brian and Daphne ninja'd me with very long posts both

The strategy of accusing people will become a lot more important after we've hit a wolf I think

I agree that accusing people is a good thing to do, but with everything going on right now in the thread its a lot easier for wolves to remain quiet or agree with things others have said. I also want to know why you're lynching Kard? You say you vote for them, then ask us to hear you out but I don't see an actual explanation in there

Am I the only one who suspects Brian?

No I just said I did as well.

 

[Luxen Silverback II]

My reasoning for Admins and GM's is that they have been on the site the longest and even if they haven't played many games, still have a lot of experience that is either not being utilized or being utilized to help wolves.

I went in to Day two with Daphne as my number one suspect to watch based on the belief that the wolves would continue going after our stronger players. With that in mind I knew being active would therefore carry a risk of being targeted by them especially with Daphne potentially being not available or a wolf so I went a little chaotic (being too helpful or logical carried the risk of dying on the second day) Plus it had the added benefit of seeing people's reactions. The wolves know I am not a wolf so they will either agree with certain false leads (hopefully) or argue against them and perhaps slip up. This in my opinion was the case of Zach, I clearly showed that RNG did not benefit us and yet he still wanted it and that instantly raised him to my number one suspect by far.

I'm suspect until I am dead and you see I was of no importance, likely the wolves are guessing that as well and hoping to target one of our more valuable players and misdirect us hoping we would overthink Skylar's death.

EDIT: Zach also had the chance to go back on it but didn't and that made me positive in my opinion that he's a wolf.

 

[Sara Moon]

If you did die though, we wouldn’t know which leads were false and which were intentionally chaotic and we’d still be in a quagmire.

 

[Luxen Silverback II]

If you did die though, we wouldn’t know which leads were false and which were intentionally chaotic and we’d still be in a quagmire.

I disagree as I hid my real leads in previous posts that Daphne found clearly marked for if I had died, especially Zach)

 

[Amber Chou Wilson]

Just went through the posts from yesterday to piece together a bit more. Zach was actually only one of the few people to still recommend RNG which I think is suspicious, but Ana also did randomly pick from the experienced players (which is less suspicious but still an instance of RNG picking)

What I was curious about is how the Cyndi lynching happened. I usually get the feeling that it's likely a villager votes for another villager with some reasonable reasoning (hehe) , and then others pile on and make it a bandwagon, including wolves. Maia started the bandwagon, which in this theory would make her a villager. Then others joined her vote in the following order: Mel, Clara, Soho (Saira), Mia, Verity (Penny) I'm currently suspicious of them, as I feel like at least one wolf would likely pile on. My reasoning right now is that it would likely be somewhat at the start to get the ball rolling, because once enough people have voted there is no need as a wolf to vote anymore. Wolves know that if they vote and then die, that voting pattern will be looked at and picked apart. I know I'm guilty of not voting myself yesterday, but it's something to keep in mind.

With that logic I feel like Mel, Clara or Soho are more suspicious.

I'm suspect until I am dead and you see I was of no importance, likely the wolves are guessing that as well and hoping to target one of our more valuable players and misdirect us hoping we would overthink Skylar's death.

EDIT: Zach also had the chance to go back on it but didn't and that made me positive in my opinion that he's a wolf.

I understand what you're trying to do, but in the past I've always found the people who make a point of telling the other players they are not an important role/ definitely a villager / definitely not a wolf multiple times more suspicious rather than less. I also remember them being a wolf multiple times after insisting that they weren't.

If you did die though, we wouldn’t know which leads were false and which were intentionally chaotic and we’d still be in a quagmire.

This is exactly the point I was trying to make. Especially with Brian saying this:

so I went a little chaotic (being too helpful or logical carried the risk of dying on the second day) Plus it had the added benefit of seeing people's reactions. The wolves know I am not a wolf so they will either agree with certain false leads (hopefully) or argue against them and perhaps slip up. This in my opinion was the case of Zach, I clearly showed that RNG did not benefit us and yet he still wanted it and that instantly raised him to my number one suspect by far.

The wolves know that, yes (assuming you are not a wolf) but we don't. We don't know what are false leads and what aren't. You can't both say you hope your death will lead to more leads and claim you're being chaotic to see people's reactions and add false leads to see how the wolves would react. I don't think that can both work.

 

[Luxen Silverback II]

I like to multitask and I trusted the players to decipher some of it.

Today however I plan on making my case for why I truly believe Zach is the person we should lynch. He has made multiple statements for RNG and again voted the first day but didn't do anything on the second except hoping it would go to RNG (in my opinion trying to get others to go that route)

I think he was waiting to see if the vote got close and if it did he was going to push it into a tie. He knew we were keeping an eye out for those that bandwagoned on the second day and he had done that on the first day so I believe he simply remained silent hoping to go unnoticed.

 

[Monty Pendleton]

I agree that accusing people is a good thing to do, but with everything going on right now in the thread its a lot easier for wolves to remain quiet or agree with things others have said. I also want to know why you're lynching Kard? You say you vote for them, then ask us to hear you out but I don't see an actual explanation in there

That is exactly why we have to accuse people that have not been accused yet

So far, if we've only been suspecting innocents, the wolves have had no reason to jump in and defend each other, or even vote. Why raise suspicion on yourself when you can just slip under the radar and let the town kill each other off? It's a good strategy.

The reason I voted for Kard was exactly that - I'm trying to bring some attention to these people who have been slipping under the radar, making a few token posts but not really contributing in a meaningful way, while we all vote to lynch each other.

I have a small list of people I think are suspicious and I am finding it interesting to see how they align with other's suspicions - I don't want to say anything yet though

 

[Luxen Silverback II]

Well I suspected Kard back on day one based off the time he's normally active so I agree that he is a person of interest as a wolf but others stated he wasn't experienced and since I pushed my attention onto that wolf I stopped looking at him and just made a note to see what he did until we found at least one of the experienced wolves.

Edit: Jace is still top of my list because he did multiple suspicious things throughout both days not just suggest RNG

 

[Monty Pendleton]

Well I suspected Kard back on day one based off the time he's normally active so I agree that he is a person of interest as a wolf but others stated he wasn't experienced and since I pushed my attention onto that wolf I stopped looking at him and just made a note to see what he did until we found at least one of the experienced wolves.

Edit: Jace is still top of my list because he did multiple suspicious things throughout both days not just suggest RNG

I'm gonna go back n see who took the attention off him before

 

[Monty Pendleton]

I'm gonna go back n see who took the attention off him before

So it was Clara first and then Rowan, who obviously turned out to be innocent in the end

 

[Amber Chou Wilson]

I like to multitask and I trusted the players to decipher some of it.

Today however I plan on making my case for why I truly believe Zach is the person we should lynch. He has made multiple statements for RNG and again voted the first day but didn't do anything on the second except hoping it would go to RNG (in my opinion trying to get others to go that route)

I think he was waiting to see if the vote got close and if it did he was going to push it into a tie. He knew we were keeping an eye out for those that bandwagoned on the second day and he had done that on the first day so I believe he simply remained silent hoping to go unnoticed.

It feels a bit like you have convoluted strategies we are just supposed to pick up on. The idea of editing old posts to hide your 'true' leads is just... strange. Not necessarily suspicious, but it is making things more confusing.

I agree that Zach is suspicious in this case.

Well I suspected Kard back on day one based off the time he's normally active so I agree that he is a person of interest as a wolf but others stated he wasn't experienced and since I pushed my attention onto that wolf I stopped looking at him and just made a note to see what he did until we found at least one of the experienced wolves.

Edit: Jace is still top of my list because he did multiple suspicious things throughout both days not just suggest RNG

But I also think putting too much stock in who is online and not active at a certain time is too risky. I know that if you're completely in the game and posting a lot its hard to imagine others that signed up aren't as invested (I'm feeling this right now myself) not everyone has time/energy to post a lot and react to everything. It's a very overwhelming game, especially with so many people. When there are a ton of posts to read through its hard to form a good theory and contribute. Especially for newer players.

 

[Sara Moon]

I’m going for our after-dinner walk but I’ll Lao point out that generally when editing posts (I don’t know if you did this or not I’m on my phone and haven’t looked back at them yet) people put in what they’ve edited, because otherwise it looks suspicious, like hiding what you’ve said in order to seem more trustworthy.

 

[Monty Pendleton]

OK so I'm skimming a bit, but as far as I can see, when Zach suggested the RNG yesterday, nobody had any votes against them yet

Now, if someone had 2 votes and he'd suggested the RNG, I'd find it suspicious because it'd be like he was trying to stop a wolf from dying

But I don't quite see how suggesting RNG when nobody was being targeted makes him suspicious.

I think he was waiting to see if the vote got close and if it did he was going to push it into a tie. He knew we were keeping an eye out for those that bandwagoned on the second day and he had done that on the first day so I believe he simply remained silent hoping to go unnoticed.

I can kiiinda see where you're coming from though. A few posts above his, some people had been named as suspicious. He might have been preemptively suggesting a tie if he thought one of his wolf buddies might be about to get piled on, because a 50/50 chance of saving them is better than none

It's not enough to convince me yet though

 

[Amber Chou Wilson]

But I don't quite see how suggesting RNG when nobody was being targeted makes him suspicious.

I think the logic is that a RNG percentage wise is easily in favor of the wolves.

I’m going for our after-dinner walk but I’ll Lao point out that generally when editing posts (I don’t know if you did this or not I’m on my phone and haven’t looked back at them yet) people put in what they’ve edited, because otherwise it looks suspicious, like hiding what you’ve said in order to seem more trustworthy.

This is a good point. The way he's doing it now is unclear and almost seems like a way to later cover his erratic behavior (which he has been doing now)

 

[Monty Pendleton]

I think the logic is that a RNG percentage wise is easily in favor of the wolves.

Aye, but an RNG between two people has a greater chance of one of them being a wolf than if he just let people vote off a villager themselves!

Edit: OK I think I see why I'm confused - the RNG argument makes sense if Zach had wanted to let it fall COMPLETELY to RNG, so nobody votes for anyone. That's definitely in the wolves' favour. But creating a tie between two people, which Zach was suggesting, and letting it fall to RNG who dies, would not be in the wolves favour

Edit again: heck I re-read and now I'm not sure what Zach meant at all so nvm

 

[Amber Chou Wilson]

Aye, but an RNG between two people has a greater chance of one of them being a wolf than if he just let people vote off a villager themselves!

I agree. RNG at least isn't able to be influenced by wolves, which was why early on I was in favor of it too.

 

[Amy Rosemary]

These posts are going so fast I can barely keep up

I get the feeling the wolves were perhaps trying to break their previous pattern of who they kill to get us confused.

I thought this exact thing too.

Am I the only one who suspects Brian?

I suspect him too but he could also have some other important role that isn't wolf... (need to read the roles again) Can I ask why you find him suspicious though? I feel like if people explain their suspicions instead of just saying they find that person suspect then it might help a little. I know people have been doing it, but there may be something else in your explanation that we might have missed. Not sure if that makes a lot of sense.

So it was Clara first and then Rowan, who obviously turned out to be innocent in the end

I honestly have to go back, I can't remember what I've said


EDIT: I have a feeling Zach isn't a wolf, he doesn't seem suspicious to me.

 

[Monty Pendleton]

I'm never in favour of RNG because analysing votes and posts and defensive comments is the only way to get closer to finding the wolves even if you let it go to RNG each day and you hit a wolf, you wouldn't be any closer to finding the other 3 after that.

Which I guess is what Brian's getting at. I misunderstood cus I thought Zach had been suggesting creating a tie between two people and letting RNG choose between them, but now I think maybe he was trying to let it fall completely to RNG. Which is indeed not a good idea at all and would help the wolves a lot

Edit: My best strategy is lynching people who will give us the most information, whether or not they turn out to be innocent or a wolf.

For instance, because Clara just said she doesn't think Zach is suspicious at all, killing off Zach could give us a good indication of whether Clara is also a wolf or not

And Clara would never have said that if Brian wasn't pointing fingers at Zach, which is why the accusations are important even if they are almost baseless sometimes

This is all just a theoretical scenario but you know the best people to lynch off are the ones where the result will give you information about multiple other people

 

[Amy Rosemary]

Aight I'm gonna have to read back a bit, this game's just too confusing

 

[Monty Pendleton]

Haha heck sorry, last night I came back to like 3 pages and I almost didn't want to read through it all because it was so much now I'm part of the problem

 

[Amber Chou Wilson]

For instance, because Clara just said she doesn't think Zach is suspicious at all, killing off Zach could give us a good indication of whether Clara is also a wolf or not

And Clara would never have said that if Brian wasn't pointing fingers at Zach, which is why the accusations are important even if they are almost baseless sometimes

This is all just a theoretical scenario but you know the best people to lynch off are the ones where the result will give you information about multiple other people

I agree with this but there is always a chance that wolves are talking among themselves too to offhandedly suspect each other so we can't connect the dots later.

 

[Luxen Silverback II]

I agree. RNG at least isn't able to be influenced by wolves, which was why early on I was in favor of it too.

They don't need to influence it early on because the numbers are on their side and the person wouldn't be able to say if they are important or not (you know like Cyndi tried to do). It would make them appear innocent and less likely to be looked at because they are not accusing anyone directly so therefore that person is not going to be looking at them either.

I don't have an important role, I will say that clearly in fact you can lynch me or the wolves can kill me, however (and yes that makes me suspicious but so does everything else I do apparently so I will say it anyways) I would like to say that you guys keep pointing out all these things based off previous games and yes I read a couple but again this is literally my first time playing one of these games so I must be a quick learner to use all these sneaky wolf tactics lol

I am mainly focused on Zach, he is my suspect and I feel I have been one of the most if not the most active participant and have watched and analyzed enough post to feel confident to have nominated him. I'm curious as to why someone does not believe he's suspect aside from he doesn't seem so since I have listed reasons why he is.

My solution to all of this is going to be simple, Lynch me today and look at Zach tomorrow or Lynch Zach today and Lynch me tomorrow if I'm wrong. Either way the chances of finding the real wolf's go up. IF your not going to lynch me than please let focus on other suspects because the going around in circles is making me suspicious of people that I feel is not who my attention should be on at the moment. I know 100% my death will vindicate me like Cyndi's did for her so I'm okay with dying.

 

[Amy Rosemary]

will reply to those other posts in a sec, but just wanted to repost Mia's table here so it's easier to see (hope you don't mind @Selene Le Fey )

IC name	OOC name	Experience	Role (if killed)
Zennon Baros	Teigs	yes	Villager
Jace Blade	Zach	Yes
Luxen Silverback II	Brian	no
Penny Wills		no
Selene Le Fey	Mia	yes
Zara Woodlock	Marga	yes
Professor Cyndi Kingsley	Cyndi	yes	Villager
Lysander Summers	Jesse	yes	Villager
Professor Monty Pendleton	Clare	yes
Evangelia Seong	Adia	no
Poppy Perkins	Kadi	no
Amber Chou Wilson	Daphne	yes
Ainsley Lynch	Rowan	yes	Seer/fool
Amy Jewel	annabelle	yes
Daisy Parker	Donna	yes
James Cade	Dan	yes
Stanislaw Kurek	Stephen	no
Stefan Archer	emzies	yes
Amy Rosemary	Clara	yes (its been a while)
Sara Moon	Maia	yes
Kard Thomas	Danny	no
Skylar Anderson	Samantha	no	Villager
Saira Lykims	Soho	no
Harper Alston	ana	no
Sarah Keith	mel	yes (it's been a while)

 

[Amber Chou Wilson]

I am mainly focused on Zach, he is my suspect and I feel I have been one of the most if not the most active participant and have watched and analyzed enough post to feel confident to have nominated him. I'm curious as to why someone does not believe he's suspect aside from he doesn't seem so since I have listed reasons why he is.

My solution to all of this is going to be simple, Lynch me today and look at Zach tomorrow or Lynch Zach today and Lynch me tomorrow if I'm wrong. Either way the chances of finding the real wolf's go up. IF your not going to lynch me than please let focus on other suspects because the going around in circles is making me suspicious of people that I feel is not who my attention should be on at the moment. I know 100% my death will vindicate me like Cyndi's did for her so I'm okay with dying.

I think the main argument against Zach is that he's not been that active, and the only thing against him is the RNG thing. Which is suspicious, but I don't know if it's suspicious enough to say either you OR Zach are a wolf.

 

[Amy Rosemary]

For instance, because Clara just said she doesn't think Zach is suspicious at all, killing off Zach could give us a good indication of whether Clara is also a wolf or not

And Clara would never have said that if Brian wasn't pointing fingers at Zach, which is why the accusations are important even if they are almost baseless sometimes
This is all just a theoretical scenario but you know the best people to lynch off are the ones where the result will give you information about multiple other people

and there was my mistake ahaha but ah well if my death is useful then so be it. I just went with a gut feeling (which could turn out to be very wrong)

I also had a suspicion that Dan is the drunk because he's barely been posting, but again i can't be sure. I don't even know if that will help at all. I find him slightly suspicious too because when Brian started talking about Zach being the wolf, Dan asked if he was the only one who finds Brian suspicious, but i might just be reading too much into this

If I die because of what i just said (RIP) there's a possible lead

I agree with this but there is always a chance that wolves are talking among themselves too to offhandedly suspect each other so we can't connect the dots later.

@Amber Chou Wilson I did not think of that last bit.

Maybe both you and Brian are wolves and are intentionally making the rest of us confused