Yes, a gut feeling, but I also have a couple reasons.
Firstly, I'm inclined to think she's being truthful about forgetting about posting. It could've been sheer coincidence that she remembered and thought to post then. Besides, she didn't really seem to acknowledge the fact that you'd voted to lynch her, and going on with the belief that she's being truthful, she simply saw that the previous two people had voted to lynch Esme and went along with it. It doesn't seem like she was trying to push anything. We're thinking too hard -- that's just me thinking hard on it.
Btw, there are two lovers somewhere here in the game, right?