Werewolf: HNZ Birthday edition 🐺

[Monty Pendleton]

But more importantly, her being a villager would tell us that we can (probably) trust Verity, Danny and Steven

OH I SEE WHAT YOU MEAN

Yes, that is a very good point. Either we get a wolf, or we learn that those 3 are probably innocent

 

[Amber Chou Wilson]

OH I SEE WHAT YOU MEAN

Yes, that is a very good point. Either we get a wolf, or we learn that those 3 are probably innocent

And if we do get a wolf we also know we can trust both you and Mel likely as you two both switch to vote for her from Soho. Though Mel not as definitively as she only followed your lead.

EDIT: What I mean to say here is that Claire wouldn't have swapped from Soho to Anabelle if she is a wolf and they are both wolves, if she were to change the tide of the votes so to speak she would have picked someone else.

EDIT 2: Is anyone better than me at math and can tell me how many more villager deaths we can have before we lose

 

[Monty Pendleton]

And if we do get a wolf we also know we can trust both you and Mel likely as you two both switch to vote for her from Soho. Though Mel not as definitively as she only followed your lead.

I'm not actually so sure, because if Anabelle is a wolf it would mean both Soho and Anabelle were both wolves, and Mel switching to Anabelle would've made no difference. The only person it potentiaally would make look less suspicious is me, since I'd have no motivation to tie a vote between two wolves - I'd have picked a villager to turn everyone onto instead

 

[Amber Chou Wilson]

I'm not actually so sure, because if Anabelle is a wolf it would mean both Soho and Anabelle were both wolves, and Mel switching to Soho would've made no difference. The only person it potentiaally would make look less suspicious is me, since I'd have no motivation to tie a vote between two wolves - I'd have picked a villager to turn everyone onto instead

That's what I said in my edit haha, and that's why I said Mel less definitively.

EDIT: I know my edits are annoying but I keep having thoughts!
I think it would make Mel SLIGHTLY less suspicious in my eyes as by moving from one wolf to another wolf she is making both seem more suspicious, I think?

 

[Monty Pendleton]

Ah heck, so assuming we lynch off villagers every day until the end of the game... and assuming it's an insta-wolf-win if we end up with an equal number of wolves and villagers.. I think we have 3 days left

 

[Amber Chou Wilson]

Ah heck, so assuming we lynch off villagers every day until the end of the game... and assuming it's an insta-wolf-win if we end up with an equal number of wolves and villagers.. I think we have 3 days left

I think its not a wolf win until the wolves outnumber the villagers.

 

[Professor Geovanna Adler-Cade]

I did previously say that either the entire wolf team or entire village team need to be dead for a win, but yes this is from now a case of the wolves outnumbering the villagers for a wolf win.

 

[Monty Pendleton]

Aaah cool cool, in that case 4 days, assuming we didn't get a single wolf (but by the time the wolves and villagers are equal it'd be down to RNG in the day )

 

[Amber Chou Wilson]

I've been thinking about this more and TECHNICALLY we could get into a situation then where its
2 villagers vs 2 wolves
Lynching would be tied, RNG -> best case scenario wolf dies

Remaining wolf eats 1 villager, other villager and leftover wolf vote for each other -> RNG

So once we're equal, there's only a slight random chance we'll still win so we have to make sure to win before that point

 

[Monty Pendleton]

I think that's usually why tie = wolf win, it'd suck for the wolves to get all the way to that point and then die just because of RNG

 

[Amber Chou Wilson]

I've seen Steven lurking and I'm very curious what his thoughts are at this point. I'm also curious about @Poppy Perkins and @James Cade and what they are thinking.

Apologies for @ing you but the game is nearing its end and you two are both somewhat confirmed innocent.

 

[Penny Wills]

Hi everyone, glad we've got two wolves! I haven't had any profound thoughts to contribute to the game at the moment, let me sleep on it and post tomorrow if that's okay.

 

[Amy Rosemary]

EDIT: I know my edits are annoying but I keep having thoughts!
I think it would make Mel SLIGHTLY less suspicious in my eyes as by moving from one wolf to another wolf she is making both seem more suspicious, I think?

So I don’t know but wouldn’t this also be a good wolf tactic not to seem suspicious/to seem less suspicious?

edit: typos

 

[Amber Chou Wilson]

So I don’t know but would this also not be a good wolf tactic not to seem suspicious/to seem less suspicious?

I think you can read it either way, honestly.

 

[Monty Pendleton]

I think it would make Mel SLIGHTLY less suspicious in my eyes as by moving from one wolf to another wolf she is making both seem more suspicious, I think?

That's true btw!

But I just had a thought. If Anabelle is innocent, that'd mean Verity, Danny, and Steven are probably innocent, which means literally the only 2 people left to suspect are me and Mel. But I know I'm not a wolf. So one of the guys that would supposedly be innocent because of her death would have to be a wolf

Which actually means, to me, that Annabelle has to be a wolf, because it's impossible for Verity, Danny, and Steven to all be innocent in the scenario that Annabelle was innocent and Mel and I are cleared

Edit: obviously this is just to me. You guys have me included in your list of suspects, but I'm not on my own list

 

[Amber Chou Wilson]

That's true btw!

But I just had a thought. If Anabelle is innocent, that'd mean Verity, Danny, and Steven are probably innocent, which means literally the only 2 people left to suspect are me and Mel. But I know I'm not a wolf. So one of the guys that would supposedly be innocent because of her death would have to be a wolf

Which actually means, to me, that Annabelle has to be a wolf, because it's impossible for Verity, Danny, and Steven to all be innocent in the scenario that Annabelle was innocent and Mel and I are cleared

Or Steven simply didn't want to draw attention to himself by changing. Verity and Danny actively voted for a wolf after another option was suggested, Steven simply stuck to his vote.

But yes, good point. (Though WE don't know you're not a wolf and using that as an argument is a bit weak)

I'm going to vote for Anabelle / Amy Jewel as I believe it will give us the most information.

 

[Amy Rosemary]

I don’t think the wolves would go after unconfirmed villagers (unconfirmed to us, but obviously they know who is a villager and who isn’t). It would be easier for them if they let the villagers lynch each other. So I also find it very likely that either me or Daphne will be eaten tonight.

But I just had a thought. If Anabelle is innocent, that'd mean Verity, Danny, and Steven are probably innocent, which means literally the only 2 people left to suspect are me and Mel. But I know I'm not a wolf. So one of the guys that would supposedly be innocent because of her death would have to be a wolf

Well, if we read back to like, the beginning-ish of the game, Mia compiled a list of experienced vs inexperienced right? So, one of the wolves is probably fairly experienced in that case, as they would have outsmarted/tricked us to make us trust them or to make them seem innocent. I don’t know if that is a good method to check or if it would even tell us anything, but just a thought.

 

[Amber Chou Wilson]

I don’t think the wolves would go after unconfirmed villagers (unconfirmed to us, but obviously they know who is a villager and who isn’t). It would be easier for them if they let the villagers lynch each other. So I also find it very likely that either me or Daphne will be eaten tonight.


Well, if we read back to like, the beginning-ish of the game, Mia compiled a list of experienced vs inexperienced right? So, one of the wolves is probably fairly experienced in that case, as they would have outsmarted/tricked us to make us trust them or to make them seem innocent. I don’t know if that is a good method to check or if it would even tell us anything, but just a thought.

The experienced/inexperienced thing mostly came up because Jesse died night 1, which is a thing that most likely an experienced wolf would do. I have kind of let go of this since Donna died, as she's a wolf that fits that criteria.

 

[Monty Pendleton]

Haha I know I added that in an edit I'm not saying use this as a reason to vote for her, I'm just voicing my thoughts

It's just that this is what it looks like for me right now:

Scenario 1: Anabelle is innocent
Verity, Danny, and Steven are probably innocent because of their voting history
That means Mel and I have to be wolves. But I'm not a wolf, so from my perspective this just cannot be possible, unless, like you say, one of the others is playing us (I get the feeling it's most likely to be Danny or Steven though)

Scenario 2: Anabelle is a wolf
Mel and I are probably/possibly innocent
Danny, Verity, and Steven are still potential suspects

So to me scenario 2 is more likely, though 1 could still be the case if we're getting played

So, one of the wolves is probably fairly experienced in that case

I was assuming it was Donna who decided to kill Jesse, she was the alpha with the final say after all

 

[Amber Chou Wilson]

assuming it was Donna who decided to kill Jesse, she was the alpha with the final say after all

I'm assuming it was Donna too, but this makes me wonder, does the Alpha wolf actually get final say and have authority over the others? I didn't necessarily get that from the description.

@Geovanna Volt ?

 

[Monty Pendleton]

It did make me wonder who had the final say once Donna died

 

[Amber Chou Wilson]

I always thought Alpha wolf was just a fancy name but it's still essentially the same role?

 

[Monty Pendleton]

I think I'm thinking about a past game, or town of salem where the godfather has the choice ultimately, and if the godfather dies another member of the mafia becomes the new godfather

 

[Professor Geovanna Adler-Cade]

Technically, the alpha wolf didn't have any different powers to the other wolves in this game.

The last time I hosted, I made it so the alpha had to say the word "wolf" or similar in every post, making their role harder but they did have the final say. I removed that completely this game.

This time it's just a fancy word for the pack "leader" but their vote hadn't necessarily had the power to override a majority.

 

[Amber Chou Wilson]

I'm not going to lie, when Claire suddenly came out with an assumption about how a wolf role worked that I wasn't getting from the description, I started to wonder if she was a wolf who had gotten more detailed or slightly different instructions on how the roles work.