Werewolf: HNZ Birthday edition 🐺

[Monty Pendleton]

I agree that a wolf would jump on the bandwagon late, but I also think they would switch to the other option assuming the other option is not a wolf. I'm not convinced Annabelle is one, honestly.

The other option was Annabelle though, she couldn't vote for herself?
Soho could have (well, she couldn't but she didn't know it at the time) voted for Annabelle and saved her own life. Why would she not have done that if Annabelle was innocent? It makes no sense not to vote for her

Unless of course it didn't make a difference who died and she was hoping Annabelle would die and her wolf-role being revealed would therefore make her look innocent
Or vice versa, Soho being a wolf makes Annabelle look innocent

 

[Amber Chou Wilson]

I wasn't talking about Anabelle necessarily, just what I think wolves were most likely to do. There is more than one wolf left.

 

[Monty Pendleton]

But you see my point riight? Why would Soho not have voted for Annabelle? Why would she have said one of their deaths would help narrow down the wolves? She's a wolf so she knows who's a villager and who's not. She would've known Annabelle's death, if she were a villager, would make her look suspicious. She was hoping Annabelle would be revealed as a wolf and it would clear her name by implying that only one of them was a wolf

aaaaa
I was suspicious of Soho man, I literally said yesterday that I thought the wolves were Soho, Annabelle, and Danny. Why would I say that if I was trying to protect Soho
I was just hesitating because of the bandwagoning. I even said, also, that Annabelle being a wolf wouldn't mean Soho isn't one as well. Just that there seemed like more of a chance Annabelle was one due to yesterday's activities

I get the feeling I'm gonna get lynched today everyone's now suspicious of me and it'll be easy for y'all to convince each other nghhh

 

[Amber Chou Wilson]

I get your point a bit, but I also think Soho not voting at all isn't strange. She knew she was a wolf and any vote she cast would be analyzed and would just give us information.

EDIT: If Annabelle is a wolf wouldn't it make more sense for Soho to vote for her so no one would think she was a wolf?

 

[Monty Pendleton]

Yeah but we're so late in the game at this point, she'd still have a good chance of winning as a wolf if she had chosen to lynch off Annabelle (if Annabelle was a villager). It doesn't make sense, her death was totally needless if Annabelle was a villager. Presumably Soho actually wanted to live to the end of the game and win alive, I can't see her not voting for Annabelle and just saying that my reasoning made sense, etc.

The fact she literally SACRIFICED herself for the sake of, in her own words, 'narrowing down who the wolves are' suggests that she wanted one of their deaths to make the other person look innocent

 

[Amber Chou Wilson]

I don't think Soho was in time to vote last night? I also dont know if we can take anything she said to heart. I'm going to analyze the voting last night again.

 

[Monty Pendleton]

EDIT: If Annabelle is a wolf wouldn't it make more sense for Soho to vote for her so no one would think she was a wolf?

I have considered this, but if they were both wolves then it wouldn't matter either way who died. By letting it go to RNG she was making herself look innocent (notice how after she made the comment about abstaining I was like 'oh god you'd better be a villager and not die' - I genuinely thought she was one). So if Annabelle had got hit by the RNG and turned out to be a wolf, Soho would look very much innocent for not voting for her

Or if Soho died, Annabelle would look innocent because of her 'this will help us narrow it down' comment

And since one wolf was gonna die anyway that would be a smart plan

 

[Monty Pendleton]

Soho wasn't in time, aye, but she didn't know that when she made the comment that she was going to abstain (or claimed not to know it - I'd say she could've been bluffing but I actually hadn't realised either so was inclined to believe she'd not realised)

Edit: also pls let's not forget I was first to vote to lynch Donna, who was a wolf. Why would I sacrifice one wolf buddy and try to save another so blatantly like, that's a risky heckin move on my behalf no?!

I made it veery clear yesterday that I suspected Soho and Annabelle

Anyway I'll shush now, I'm curious what everyone else is thinking. In my sureness that Annabelle and Soho were working together and my fear of being lynched today I'm probably overlooking some things

 

[Amy Rosemary]

My brain literally isn’t functioning rn and I find myself having to reread every post

I’m not quite sure what to think to be honest. There are still two wolves in the game, so even if Annabelle is a wolf, the other wolf could possibly be steering the convo (for lack of better words lol sorry guys my brain is mush at the moment) towards her to make them look innocent, as anyone who defends someone who is voted to be lynched by the majority is at risk at this stage of the game. It would make them stand out.

I understand what you’re saying Claire, and you make some very good points, but I haven’t been swayed. You and Annabelle could be wolves, or she could be innocent and you’re just trying to make us vote for her as that would make it one less villager to deal with, for the wolves - but that could be a really smart strategy to make us trust you so we would overlook the possibility of you being a wolf (far-fetched I suppose but still possible) Considering we haven’t doubted you being a villager thus far in the game.

I don’t know how much of that makes sense but I hope I got my point across

 

[Amy Rosemary]

As far as I know Soho wasn’t in time to vote but mentioned before we started voting that she would only be able to check in after school, to see if she was being lynched (which she was), so probs wouldn’t have been able to vote either way.

 

[Amber Chou Wilson]

Unconfirmed people and their votes yesterday:

• Amy Jewel - villager - Saira
• Monty Pendleton - villager - Saira then changed to Amy Jewel (1st)
• Kard Thomas - villager - Saira
• Penny Wills - villager - Saira
• Sarah Keith - villager - Saira then changed to Amy Jewel
• Poppy Perkins - ghost - No vote
• Stanislaw Kurek - villager - Saira

Observations:

After we voted for Donna, Claire points out Mel is likely not a wolf because she broke a tie between her and Daisy

Also pointed out Steven is likely not a wolf because he voted for Donna and broke a tie

Says wolves are likely Soho, Anabelle and Danny but then adds that she didn't think Soho and Danny were working together earlier.

I voted for Soho early in the day, which Clara, Mel, Claire, Maia, Anabelle and Steven joined in with in that order.

Then Claire changed her vote to Anabelle, after which Soho posted and didn't vote. Danny then voted for Soho. Clara and Mel changed to Anabelle, while Verity added her vote to Soho instead. Maia then changed her vote to Anabelle as well. I ended the vote by changing mine to Claire to make it a tie.

Soho did post and talked about voting before she knew she couldn't. She said she would leave it to RNG to decide her fate, adding that it isn't fair to vote for Anabelle when they were in a tie. (My theory: she did this in case the RNG came out on Anabelle as a villager, which would make her not look suspicious as she could have changed the vote and killed her. Same with her comment about narrowing down who the wolf is. She was likely laying groundwork for the possiblity that she wouldn't die.)

Claire then told Saira she hoped she was a villager, then said she had a good point in reaction to her saying it would be suspicious of her to protect herself.

---

Today:

Claire repeated it was natural to think the wolves were bandwagoning onto Soho. (Opinion: I agree, those would be Mel, Claire herself, Anabelle and Steven looking above at the voting order)

Quote: '- I said the entire time that just because I was voting for Annabelle/suspected Annabelle, didn't mean Soho wasn't a wolf as well. I just suspected Annabelle more at that second'
(Opinion: I didn't get the impression Claire was suspicious of Soho near the end of last night)

- Soho said last night something like 'Well at least whoever dies today it will help us narrow down who the wolves are'. This makes me even more sure Annabelle is a wolf as well, and I will try to explain why but my brain is mushy

I think you are reaching a bit with this, I won't lie. I think Soho saying that was, as I said, with her thinking she had a 50/50 chance of living that night. Imagine if she hadn't died but Anabelle had insetad, and Anabelle had been a villager. Soho not making sure she died the day before would have immediately taken her off our suspicions list. She was voted for so much, that it was probably the only way she could have regained her innocence in our eyes. And like I said earlier, wolves probably know not to vote before they are killed because it gives us something to analyze.

Firstly, the comment itself implies that only one or the other could be a wolf. She was obviously claiming innocence at the time, which suggests she either hoped A) Annabelle would die, be revealed as a wolf, and make Soho look innocent, or B ) Soho would die, be revealed as a wolf, and make Annabelle look innocent

Why would she have made such a comment if Annabelle was a villager? If Annabelle died and was a villager it would only make us more suspicious of Soho.

I don't agree. If Anabelle died and was a villager we would have realized Soho could have voted her to her death but didn't. Why would that make us more suspicious of her?

EDIT: Unless Anabelle is also a werewolf and it didn't matter anyway, I think Verity and Danny voting for Soho after the tide had already turned onto Anabelle makes them clearly innocent.

EDIT 2: I think voting for Anabelle will give us the most answers at this point. My logic at the moment is:

If Anabelle is a wolf: Claire is innocent, Mel is likely innocent - Claire started the vote for Anabelle and Mel joined her.

If Anabelle is a villager: Verity and Danny are likely innocent- They voted for Soho even after the tide changed towards Anabelle and no one would have batted an eye at them for changing. Steven also is more likely innocent as he stuck with his vote for Soho as well.

Steven I personally don't suspect a.t.m. so I haven't really analyzed him in depth.

Either me or Clara is likely to die tonight by one or two of the remaining wolves (hopefully we catch one and its just one). That means that after the next night, either me or Clara will be the only confirmed villager voting against (possibly) two wolves. I want to ask Dan and Kadi to please please try to be active in these last days as you two are also two (somewhat) confirmed roles on the innocent side. Before the day is over I'll likely @ both of you even though I think its maybe a bit rude, but just to plead with you to be active tomorrow as I think it will be the deciding day (and I think I'll likely die tonight)

 

[Monty Pendleton]

Ooh you outlining those votes in the orders is super helpful actually. It's interesting that Danny and Verity voted for Soho even after they had the opportunity to change to Annabelle (although I'm still not letting go of this suspicion I have ). I still don't suspect Verity. Danny could have voted for Soho because he, Soho and Annabelle are both wolves and it didn't matter either way who he voted for... idk

But I see what you're saying for sure

(Opinion: I didn't get the impression Claire was suspicious of Soho near the end of last night)

You're 100% right, at the end when she popped in to say she was abstaining I suddenly was like 'Omg, she's a villager'. Like, I genuinely thought that but in like 3 or 4 of my previous posts that day I said I was suspicious of Soho and Annabelle both and that we shouldn't disregard the idea of Soho being a wolf just because Annabelle turns out not to be
Edit: didn't mean to put 'not' in

I know I brought a great deal of attention to myself yesterday, it was a risk I was willing to take because I was so sure that Annabelle had a bigger chance of being a wolf than Soho. If it gets me killed then, rip, but I still think it could be true

I don't agree. If Anabelle died and was a villager we would have realized Soho could have voted her to her death but didn't. Why would that make us more suspicious of her?

Because of the 'narrowing it down' comment. How would a tie resulting in Annabelle being revealed as a villager help narrow it down? It would only 'narrow it down' if Annabelle was a wolf, because it would make Soho look innocent. I agree that she was laying down the groundwork in the hopes Annabelle would die, but I just think she was doing it for the opposite reason you think she was doing it if the vote had been tied between herself and a villager, I just can't see her not taking the easy way out to live another day and potentially win alive.

What are your other ideas? I don't want to be wrong, if you guys have a really solid idea then I will happily go for it. Otherwise I'm going to be voting for Annabelle soon. I'd say 'lynch me afterwards if I'm wrong' but it'd be a waste of a day phase

 

[Stan Beckett]

Right now I'm most suspicious of Claire and Mel. Claire because she insisted that we would not be wasting another day phase by all voting for Soho, and Mel because she was very eager to agree with Claire on that and that they should vote for Annabelle instead.

My guess is that Mel is probably another wolf who, when Claire decided to vote for Annabelle, saw her chance and voted for Annabelle instead, probably in the hope that indeed more would follow.

 

[Monty Pendleton]

My guess is that Mel is probably another wolf who, when Claire decided to vote for Annabelle, saw her chance and voted for Annabelle instead, probably in the hope that indeed more would follow.

Maybe. Mel also voted for Donna though, she was like 2nd or 3rd to vote? Which doesn't strike me as wolfy behaviour

 

[Amber Chou Wilson]

Because of the 'narrowing it down' comment. How would a tie resulting in Annabelle being revealed as a villager help narrow it down?

Soho was pretending to be a villager at the time and in that role wouldn't know if Anabelle was a villager or a wolf.

EDIT: what I'm trying to say here is that I don't think there can be any value to that sentence as i believe it was pure nonsense that an innocent person would be saying at that moment.

 

[Monty Pendleton]

Soho was pretending to be a villager at the time and in that role wouldn't know if Anabelle was a villager or a wolf.

Yeah but she was actually a wolf and would have known if Annabelle was innocent or not, even if she pretended to be a villager

 

[Amber Chou Wilson]

Yeah but she was actually a wolf and would have known if Annabelle was innocent or not, even if she pretended to be a villager

Obviously, but she wouldn't want us to get any information from what she was saying after her death.

I think I'm just not getting your argument here.

Can you explain to me simply why her saying that it would narrow things down means Anabelle is a wolf?

 

[Amber Chou Wilson]

Maybe. Mel also voted for Donna though, she was like 2nd or 3rd to vote? Which doesn't strike me as wolfy behaviour

Also we both spoke in the past about the possibility of wolves sacrificing Donna because she was inactive and making themselves look more innocent in the process.

 

[Stan Beckett]

To be fair, we've been saying that everyone's death would 'narrow it down'

 

[Amber Chou Wilson]

To be fair, we've been saying that everyone's death would 'narrow it down'

That's exactly my point. I don't see it as a particularly pointed thing to say at that point whether or not Anabelle is a wolf. It's been something everyone has been saying all game with every death.

 

[Stan Beckett]

• Amy Jewel - villager
• Monty Pendleton - villager
• Kard Thomas - villager
• Penny Wills - villager
• Sarah Keith - village
• Poppy Perkins - ghost
• Stanislaw Kurek - villager
• Amber Chou Wilson - villager
• Amy Rosemary - villager
• James Cade - drunk

Right now, at this moment, this is my list.
Green = everyone who I think is either innocent/confirmed villager
Orange = not a confirmed villager/not suspicious to me
Red = everyone who I think might be a werewolf/otherwise suspicious.


Obviously not everyone will agree with me on this list but this is how it is in my mind at the moment. I could be wrong about Verity but I honestly don't think that I am (apologies if I missed anyone).

 

[Monty Pendleton]

I started writing out a super long-winded explanation and came to the conclusion half way through writing it that... you're probably right

I'm terrified to argue too hard, not just because if we lynched Annabelle and she turned out to be innocent it would seriously implicate me, but because I don't want to be wrong and waste a day phase

I'm also scared to get lynched today so I'm bearing in mind that I could be reaching just because I don't want to get lynched myself like, I realise I'm now one of the most suspicious players, regardless of my past votes

So I am very much listening to your points also. But very much scared that I will be turned on next and it'll be easy since all the wolves can agree (I'm a suspect, they can't all bandwagon on one of you guys, which means I'm one of the few people left they have to point fingers at). If you guys vote for me the wolves will all just pile on immediately and it's game over for mee

I had it all figured out in my head last night, how Annabelle (Anabelle? Sorry if I've been spelling it wrong!!) and Soho had to be working together. It all made 100% sense in my head and I was like aa I hope I live long enough to share this theory. But I think you guys have good points. I realise now that your theories are less far-fetched than mine. So I don't know any more

 

[Amber Chou Wilson]

EDIT: Unless Anabelle is also a werewolf and it didn't matter anyway, I think Verity and Danny voting for Soho after the tide had already turned onto Anabelle makes them clearly innocent.

EDIT 2: I think voting for Anabelle will give us the most answers at this point. My logic at the moment is:

If Anabelle is a wolf: Claire is innocent, Mel is likely innocent - Claire started the vote for Anabelle and Mel joined her.

If Anabelle is a villager: Verity and Danny are likely innocent- They voted for Soho even after the tide changed towards Anabelle and no one would have batted an eye at them for changing. Steven also is more likely innocent as he stuck with his vote for Soho as well.

Steven I personally don't suspect a.t.m. so I haven't really analyzed him in depth.

Either me or Clara is likely to die tonight by one or two of the remaining wolves (hopefully we catch one and its just one). That means that after the next night, either me or Clara will be the only confirmed villager voting against (possibly) two wolves. I want to ask Dan and Kadi to please please try to be active in these last days as you two are also two (somewhat) confirmed roles on the innocent side. Before the day is over I'll likely @ both of you even though I think its maybe a bit rude, but just to plead with you to be active tomorrow as I think it will be the deciding day (and I think I'll likely die tonight)

Thoughts on this?

 

[Monty Pendleton]

Oops sorry I missed all that

See I'm stuck between a rock and a hard place, because if we did vote for Annabelle and she turns out to be a villager, obviously I'll be lynched next, and that is a massive waste of time and a guaranteed wolf win

You'd think that her death (if she is innocent) would tell you that I am a wolf. But I'm not, so the information we gain from her death might end up being completely unreliable

So I'd rather go for someone who we have better reasons to vote for than my possibly-faulty logic. But do we have anyone else? Apart from me? Like I'd say go for it if lynching me would teach you anything, I'm not sure if it does though. So I get why lynching Annabelle for information seems logical. I'm just worried because the information won't be correct if she's innocent, at least in terms of implicating me @-@

Edit: I also don't suspect Steven, or Mel particularly, or Verity. They've all consistently voted for wolves now I think? And have made logical points. I think that's another reason I suspect Annabelle and Danny. Because I know I'm innocent, they're like... the only two people left I think the wolves could be

But there's every chance we're being played by anyone on the suspect list right now

Edit 2: no, Mel changed to Annabelle, so you have a good point that she might be a wolf who had voted for Soho initially but seen an easy way out when I changed to Annabelle. Hmmmm

 

[Amber Chou Wilson]

Oops sorry I missed all that

See I'm stuck between a rock and a hard place, because if we did vote for Annabelle and she turns out to be a villager, obviously I'll be lynched next, and that is a massive waste of time and a guaranteed wolf win

You'd think that her death (if she is innocent) would tell you that I am a wolf. But I'm not, so the information we gain from her death might end up being completely unreliable

So I'd rather go for someone who we have better reasons to vote for than my possibly-faulty logic. But do we have anyone else? Apart from me? Like I'd say go for it if lynching me would teach you anything, I'm not sure if it does though. So I get why lynching Annabelle for information seems logical. I'm just worried because the information won't be correct if she's innocent, at least in terms of implicating me @-@

I very purposely stated my theory in finding who is innocent rather than who is guilty. I think that is very valuable information to have. And much easier to prove, in a way.

I get not wanting to be lynched, but even if you are... it's not necessarily a wolf win. (unless my math is horribly off)

I think what I personally would take from an Anabelle being innocent is more suspicion on Mel than on you. You have proven in the past to be very likely village side (though I can never fully trust you) and have been the whole reason we now know so many innocents.

But more importantly, her being a villager would tell us that we can (probably) trust Verity, Danny and Steven